The Influence of the Main Factors on the Accuracy of Hydrological Modelling of Flooded Lands

Abstract

This paper proposes a general methodological approach to hydrological modeling for determining the areas of flooded land in the plain part of the Dniester riverbed, the second largest river in Ukraine. The purpose of the study is the selection of parameters for modeling flooded zones in the plain section of the Dniester riverbed, taking into account the rising water level caused by the freshet that occurred in the western part of Ukraine on 22–24 June 2020. The proposed study examines the workflow of hydrological modeling of the flooded land zone and the main components of this scheme: the construction of the DTM, considering the roughness of the riparian territory by Manning’s coefficients, and indications of water rise. In the experiment, the influence of DTM reproduction resolution and Manning coefficients was analyzed, and their optimal values were selected, which allowed obtaining the parameters of hydrological modeling with a higher probability. The identified flooding areas were tested using a high-resolution space image during the flood in June 2020. The distance between the profiles affects not only the value of the modeling area but also their detail. The accuracy of the modeled flooded area is 5.1% for a 5 m interval between the profiles, 6.9% for 50 m, 8.2% for 100 m, and 10.8% for 200 m. These results allow determining the degree of influence of the distance between intervals on the modeling accuracy. Using different values of Manning’s coefficients for individual sections with different bedding surfaces and the selected spacing between profiles, which was 50 m, the accuracy of the modeling was investigated. After the modelling, the simulated flood areas were obtained in vector form, which allows for determining their areas and comparing them with the test flooded area. In the presented research, the RMSE of determining the flooded areas is about 5%. The test area of 600.6 hectares was determined with an accuracy of 0.8%.