The Influence of the First Goal on the Final Result of the Football Match

Leite, Werlayne

doi:10.33607/bjshs.v3i98.91

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Overall, scoring first has a strong influence on match outcome (Bloomfield et al, 2005). Across worldwide football tournaments, scoring first has been shown to be an effective predictor of the final outcome in the 2018 FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) World Cup (71.40%; Vergonis et al, 2019), the six major football tournaments in the world (71.17%; Leite, 2015), the Greek league in the -2007Armatas et al, 2009bArmatas et al, ) and 2007Armatas et al, -2008Armatas et al, 2009a), and the La Liga (Spanish League) from the 2005 to 2010 seasons (79.32%; Molinuevo and Bermejo, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Scoring First on Match Outcome in the Chinese Football Super League

et al. 2021

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The aim of this study was to explore the effect of scoring first on match outcomes in the Chinese Football Super League (CSL). A total of 1,116 matches in which at least one goal was scored from the 2014 to 2018 seasons were collected. Match outcomes, absolute goal differences, the minute of the first goal, match locations, and teams’ budgets were analyzed. A team’s budget was measured in terms of a team’s value at the beginning of the season, and teams were clustered into two groups (high and low budget with means of 50.77 and 13.77 million dollars, respectively). A descriptive analysis was conducted, and two generalized linear models (a multinomial logit model and a Poisson model; p < 0.05) were applied. The results showed a favorable outcome for the team that scored first both in match outcome and goal difference. Regarding the teams that scored first, 66.31% won their matches, 20.70% achieved a draw, and 12.99% lost. Specifically, home teams were more likely to win (13.42%) and less likely to lose (9.52%) or draw (3.90%) than away teams. Home teams also had a higher likelihood of obtaining a larger goal difference. Higher budget teams were more likely to win (14.90%) and less likely to lose (9.75%) or draw (5.14%) than low-budget teams. Additionally, for each minute, the team scores closer to the end of the match, and the average probability of winning increased by 0.0028. These findings can guide the strategies of coaches in different match scenarios according to the match location and the opponent’s quality.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Scoring First on Match Outcome in the Chinese Football Super League

et al. 2021

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“…In addition, lack of concentration also lead to the highest goal scoring in second half where it can easily lead to defensive errors. Previous study also stated that lack of concentration throughout the match is one of critical factors that contributed to the increment of goal scoring during second half (Armatas et al, 2007a, b;Reily, 2003) where Leite (2015) stated that besides the physical exhaustion, it can certainly cause the psychological strain on the players.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Analysis of Goal Scoring in All Continents Soccer Tournament

Ahmad

Puad

Alauddin

2020

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The objective of this study was to analyze and quantify the goals scored at different period of match duration in all continent soccer tournaments. This study performed quantitative study which examined a total of 713 goals from 290 matches at 7 different soccer tournaments have been analyzed by using highlights from YouTube and FIFA official website. The results showed that majority of the tournaments score more at second half beginning with CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019, followed by World Cup 2018, EURO 2016, Africa Cup of Nations 2019, Copa America 2019 and lastly Asian Cup 2019. In contrast, only Oceania Nations Cup 2016 showed more goals had been scored in 1st half. As summary, fitness components, tactical and mental aspect become the main factor that needs to be focus by coaches in order to reduce team goal’s conceding. Keywords: soccer, FIFA, goals

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“…Thus, it appears that the physical and mental state of the players due to the high intensity of the match in its final moments, seems to exert significant influence on the implementation of technical-tactical actions, thus, regardless of the momentary outcome of the match, the player`s action includes a closer higher risk, as closer as it is from the end of the match [30].…”

Section: Figure 1 Evolution Of Average Goals Per Game In Thementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The goal also appears to be an inducer factor of high psychological burden on the players (Álvarez-Medina et al, 2002), being a strong predictor of final result (Sampedro & Pietro, 2012) [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33]. Roffé et al (2007) states that in every analysis that has been done on the "psychological goal" (also called psychological moment) has been able to find relevant relationships with psychological variables both individual as of team [34].…”

Section: Figure 1 Evolution Of Average Goals Per Game In Thementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding the characteristics that may explain the influence of the first goal for the final outcome of the match, all the aspects of the team sport must be present: physical, technical, tactical and the psychological. However, the psychological aspect seems to be the main aspect responsible for the victory of the team that scored the first goal [30].…”

Section: Figure 1 Evolution Of Average Goals Per Game In Thementioning

confidence: 99%

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A Comparative Study on Selected Physical Fitness Components Between Bangladeshi Primary School Going Boys and Girls

Mondal

Bandyopadhyay

2016

IJPEFS

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The beach soccer is currently one of the fastest developing sports in the world. It is characterized as a modality of intermittent character of high intensity, requiring high demand of energy and of the anaerobic system with intensities above 90% of maximum heart rate. The objective of this study is: (i) to analyze and quantify in absolute and percentage terms, the incidence of goals in Beach Soccer FIFA World Cups matches, checking in which periods of games the goals happen; (ii) to identify the team that scored the first goal of the game and check the final result obtained by this team: win, draw or defeat; (iii) to relate the results to the physical performance, technical, tactical and psychological. We analyzed all the matches in 5 Beach Soccer World Cup organized by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), totaling 148 matches. The data were collected at the FIFA website database through the official summaries of the games. According to the data of the goals timing, it was found that most of the goals (37.21%) are scored in the last period of games. Regarding the influence of the first goal for the final result of the match, the team that scores the first goal of the game features average probability of winning approximately 60%. Thus, it is suggested that the higher incidence of goals in the 3rd period of the games is associated mainly to the interaction of physical and psychological factors. Regarding the influence of the first goal for the final result, it is believed that the psychological aspect appears to interfere with greater relevance.

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The Influence of the First Goal on the Final Result of the Football Match

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Impact of Scoring First on Match Outcome in the Chinese Football Super League

Impact of Scoring First on Match Outcome in the Chinese Football Super League

Analysis of Goal Scoring in All Continents Soccer Tournament

A Comparative Study on Selected Physical Fitness Components Between Bangladeshi Primary School Going Boys and Girls

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