The influence of running performance on scoring the first goal in a soccer match

Abstract

Previous studies investigating running distance in high performance soccer have led to contradictory evidence, potentially due to ignoring contextual information during match phases. The present study therefore examined the relationship between running performance and goal scoring in a football match for a standardised score line. In a sample of 302 matches from the first German Bundesliga, the first goal was modelled as a function of the teams’ running performance and team strength using logistic regression. Goodness of fit was assessed by the prediction accuracy of the model utilising cross-validation. The best model showed a mean accuracy of 77%, reflecting a strong relationship between running performance and the probability of scoring the first goal. This relationship was strongest for total running distance compared to high-speed, sprint or in-possession running distance. We propose two different potential mechanisms to explain the relationship between running performance and goal-scoring found in the present study. These are (1) better ability to reach tactical aims or (2) accumulation of fatigue in the opponent. Future studies should build on these results by further examining the relationship between running performance and success using a more granular segmentation of matches.

Contextual variables affect peak running performance in elite soccer players: A brief report

“…For example, physical actions can be performed in situations such as Break into Box, Over/Underlap and Run with Ball (Ju et al, 2021). This result can motivate the performance of a more significant number of physical actions (Castellano et al, 2011;Buchheit et al, 2018;Klemp et al, 2021).…”

Exploring determinants of international transfers of women soccer players in Portuguese football

“…Thus, athletes with a greater number of games played, greater score of goals scored (or, if goalkeepers, games without goals conceded 15,16 ), and greater use of time players are players with a confirmed competitive profile in past seasons. 17, 18 Analyses focused on these dimensions were those by Garcia-del-Barrio and Pujol 19 and Čeriová et al 20 Additionally, there may be periods of greater demand for certain field positions in the contracting clubs and a greater supply of positions in the ceding clubs (e.g. as a result of the action of the training schools for junior players).…”

“…In all, 1304 international player transfers took place in 2021, a 26.2% increase compared to 2020, which saw a growth of 23.3%. In the women's sector, transfers from Brazil to Portugal also dominate worldwide, with 19 deals, followed by the Mexico-United States (17) and Sweden-United States ( 16) flow.…”

Extended Energy-Expenditure Model in Soccer: Evaluating Player Performance in the Context of the Game

“…Every game is unique and, therefore, should be treated independently. In the literature, a lot of work has analyzed the intensity concerning the scoreline [9,11,12,20]. This was done by comparing relevant metrics (e.g., HSR, distance, and sprint distance) depending on the score and also the quality of the opponent.…”