The Influence of Production Risks on the Safety of Production Processes: Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

The study is focused on the analysis of production risks in the field of enterprise management. Production risk is described as the probability of occurrence of undesirable events that may lead to deviations from expected results due to various management decisions. The main characteristics of such a risk are its variability and uncertainty. Risk management is defined as a procedure that includes all aspects of the company’s activities, starting with the formation of a strategy and ending with the control of acceptable risks in order to achieve the set goals. The management process covers the identification of events that may adversely affect the production process and their proper management. The article presents a logical model of production risk management and its integration with the management system of the company’s fixed assets. To assess the level of risk and its comparative analysis, the index method was proposed, which involves the calculation of the production risk index for each type of production resources in order to determine the priority of work. The article also discusses the scales for assessing the probability of production risk and the impact of its consequences, developed on the basis of mathematical forecasting. These scales can be adapted taking into account the opinions of experts and collected data. The article reveals how enterprise resources are prioritized taking into account production risk and budget constraints. This includes developing asset maintenance and repair cost plans, as well as updating the risk register and creating a probability and consequence matrix. An important feature of the model is its difference from existing approaches to the distribution of production resources, which includes the use of a formalized criterion for priority selection of works.