The Influence of Presumed Influence

Abstract

Although direct influences of media have been the primary focus of mass communication research, recent theoretical developments have suggested powerful and important indirect effects as well. Derived from the third-person effect hypothesis and related research, but describing a broader range of phenomena, the indirect effects model proposes that people (a) perceive some effect of a message on others and then (b) react to that perception. We call this model the influence of presumed influence. The general model was tested with evaluation data from a maternal health campaign in Nepal. A key aspect of the campaign was a serial radio drama directed at clinic health workers. Results showed, however, that many women in the general population also listened to the serial. The program had no direct positive influence on this population, but we found a significant indirect influence on their attitudes and reported behaviors when mediated by their perceptions of impact on the target population of clinic health workers.Interest in modern mass communication has focused primarily on the influences-direct influences-of mass media on individuals and on society. However, developments in theoretical research over the past 2 decades suggest that mass media may exert powerful and important indirect effects as well. The indirect effects model outlined in this article is based on the idea that people perceive some influence of a communication on others and, as a result, change their own attitudes or behaviors-what one might call the influence of presumed influence. 1 Arguably the most salient instances of such indirect effects take place in an unintended audience, a group that is not the target of a message but, in a Albert C. Gunther is a professor in the Department of Life Sciences Communication at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. J. Douglas Storey is senior research and evaluation officer in the Center for Communication Programs at Johns Hopkins University. The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge comments on an earlier draft from Dale Kunkel and Shelly Strom and assistance with analysis from Stella Chih-Yun Chia.

News With an Attitude: Assessing the Mechanisms Underlying the Effects of Opinionated News

“…Influence" (Gunther & Storey, 2003), and has been demonstrated in few studies until now (e.g., Chia, 2006;Paek, Gunther, McLeod, & Hove, 2011). In sum, we expect a positive …”

“…Davison (1983) dubbed this the "third-person effect." More generally, people tend to overestimate media effects on others irrelevant of how they perceive themselves to be affected; they attribute a strong presumed influence to the media (Gunther & Storey, 2003;Shen & Huggins, 2013). As political messages have also been shown to cause perceptions that others are being influenced (Paul et al, 2000), and because opinionated news, much more than objective news, carries a straightforward persuasive message, we expect opinionated news to evoke stronger presumptions that other people's opinions are influenced than does objective news: H 1a : Opinionated news has a stronger presumed influence than objective news.…”

“…Two well-established theories are frequently linked to opinionated news and may help to explain the effects it has on political attitudes: the model of "Presumed Influence" (Gunther & Storey, 2003) and the "Hostile Media Phenomenon" (Vallone, Ross, & Lepper, 1985).…”

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“…The measure of media congruency (evaluation of news media reporting) is viewed as an alternative way to measure the subjective perception of the opinion climate. Even if this is not a straightforward question of how a respondent's own opinion is related to the general opinion, we know from previous research that people tend to generalize media content to the general view of societal problems and their effect on public opinion (Gunther & Storey, 2003;Perloff, 2015;Schulz & Roessler, 2012). Evaluation of news media reporting can therefore be seen as a proxy for the respondents' views on the opinion climate in society.…”

Expressing Opinions about the Refugee Crisis in Europe: The Spiral of Silence and Crisis Communication

“…The measure of media congruency (evaluation of news media reporting) is viewed as an alternative way to measure the subjective perception of the opinion climate. Even if this is not a straightforward question of how a respondent's own opinion is related to the general opinion, we know from previous research that people tend to generalize media content to the general view of societal problems and their effect on public opinion (Gunther & Storey, 2003;Perloff, 2015;Schulz & Roessler, 2012). Evaluation of news media reporting can therefore be seen as a proxy for the respondents' views on the opinion climate in society.…”