BackgroundThe aim is to systematically analyse the evidence for the effect of modifiable psychological factors (MPF), those that can be changed with intervention, on outcome, for patients with musculoskeletal shoulder disorders undergoing conservative or surgical treatment. MethodsThis is a systematic literature review. We searched five databases for longitudinal studies investigating the influence of MPF on the prognosis of patients with musculoskeletal shoulder disorders undergoing conservative or surgical treatment. We assigned each MPF identified in the included references to one of six constructs and categorized all constructs into three domains. We then evaluated each construct for its predictive value of at least one outcome, and all outcomes reported were considered. Evidence was classified into three categories: evidence for, inconclusive evidence, and evidence against each construct.ResultsOf 1140 publications, 35 publications based on 33 studies were included (intervention type: 15 surgical; 18 conservative). Outcomes reported included pain, disability/function, perceived recovery, physical and mental health, and work status. Six modifiable psychological constructs were explored including self-efficacy, expectation of recovery, catastrophizing, avoidant coping, depression, and anxiety. The majority of the evidence suggested the prognostic value of all constructs except self-efficacy for patients managed surgically. In patients undergoing conservative intervention the evidence was inconclusive or against the prognostic value of MPF on outcomes. ConclusionsFive constructs were found to be predictive of outcome for surgically managed patients. This suggests that implementing the biopsychosocial approach to patients with musculoskeletal shoulder disorders managed surgically may be advantageous. The same was not observed for conservative care. The importance of other MPF on outcome requires further investigation.