The Influence of Climate Variation and Change on Diarrheal Disease in the Pacific Islands

Singh, Reena B. K.; Hales, Simon; Wet, Neil de; Raj, Rishi; Hearnden, Mark; Weinstein, Philip

doi:10.2307/3434769

Cited by 23 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The positive association between average temperature and risk of diarrhoea was similar to the findings of some previous studies which suggested that increases of temperature over the long-term (annual average) (Singh et al 2001) and the shortterm (monthly or weekly) (Checkly et al 2000;Lama et al 2004) lead to higher risk of diarrhoea. The study by (Namouva et al 2007) also revealed that pathogens causing diarrhoeal diseases respond differently to temperature variability.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…Because of this reason, the lag 1 was not considered in the multivariable Poison model. On the other hand, this phenomenon may be explained as the short-lived outbreak of diarrhoea in association with the rainfall, in which continued rainfall may possibly dilute any pathogens and restore water quality (Singh et al 2001). The analysis of multivariate Poisson regression models using continuous weather variables indicated that the best model, which has the smallest AIC value, included lag 4 average temperature, lag 0 average humidity and lag 0 cumulative rainfall (Table 2).…”

Section: Association Between Climate Factors and Diarrhoeamentioning

confidence: 98%

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Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

et al. 2014

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The Mekong Delta is vulnerable to changes in climate and hydrological events which alter environmental conditions, resulting in increased risk of waterborne diseases. Research exploring the association between climate factors and diarrhoea, the most frequent waterborne disease in Mekong Delta region, is sparse. This study evaluated the climate-diarrhoea association in Can Tho city, a typical Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. Climate data (temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) were obtained from the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre, and weekly counts of diarrhoea visits were obtained from Can Tho Preventive Medicine Centre from 2004 to 2011. Analysis of climate and health variables was carried out using spline function to adjust for seasonal and long-term trends of variables. A distributed lag model was used to investigate possible delayed effects of climate variables on diarrhoea (considering 0-4 week lag periods), then the multivariate Poisson regression was used to examine any potential association between climate factors and diarrhoea. The results indicated that the diarrhoea incidence peaked within the period August-October annually. Significant positive associations were found between increased diarrhoea and high temperature at 4 weeks prior to the date of hospital visits (IRR = 1.07; 95 % CI = 1.04-1.08), high relative humidity (IRR = 1.13; 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15) and high (>90th percentile) cumulative rainfall (IRR = 1.05; 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08). The association between climate factors and diarrhoea was stronger in rural than urban areas. These findings in the context of the projected changes of climate conditions suggest that climate change will have important implications for residential health in Mekong Delta region.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Association Between Climate Factors and Diarrhoeamentioning

confidence: 98%

Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

et al. 2014

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“…Some studies claim that rainfall does not affect foodborne disease transmission, 7,8 while other studies obtained inconsistent results. 10 Further studies are necessary in this area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate variations and bacillary dysentery in northern and southern cities of China

Zhang¹,

Bi²,

Hiller³

et al. 2007

Journal of Infection

113

108

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“…The transmission of infectious diseases is also known to accelerate with warming and to be sensitive to rainfall changes (Curriero et al 2001;Rose et al 2001;Singh et al 2001). This relationship is manifest during El Niño events (Hales et al 1996;Malezer et al 1999).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales

2010

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Cold related mortality among people aged over 50 in England and Wales has decreased at a rate of 85 deaths per million population per year over the period 1976-2005. This trend is two orders of magnitude higher than the increase in heatrelated mortality observed after 1976. Long term changes in temperature-related mortality may be linked to human activity, natural climatic forcings, or to adaptation of the population to a wider range of temperatures. Here we employ optimal detection, a formal statistical methodology, to carry out an end to end attribution analysis. We find that adaptation is a major influence on changing mortality rates. We also find that adaptation has prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. Our analysis suggests that in the absence of adaptation, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality.

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The Influence of Climate Variation and Change on Diarrheal Disease in the Pacific Islands

Cited by 23 publications

References 11 publications

Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

Climate variations and bacillary dysentery in northern and southern cities of China

Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales

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