The Influence of Climate on the Seasonal Prevalence of Plague in the Republic of Vietnam

Cavanaugh, Dan C.; Marshall, John D.

doi:10.7589/0090-3558-8.1.85

Cited by 60 publications

(72 citation statements)

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“…This correspondence provides support for a (temperature-modulated) trophic cascade model for plague (22). In contrast to the studies from North America, however, in Vietnam most human plague cases have been found to occur in dry seasons (23); the risk of plague increased during dry seasons when rainfall was <10 mm (24), showing that the trophic cascade hypothesis may not be generally valid.…”

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confidence: 46%

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Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Liu

Stige

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/ wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions. climate variations | Yersinia pestis | generalized additive modeling

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confidence: 46%

“…Experimental work has shown that relative humidity significantly affects the survival of fleas (40). Climate conditions were found to influence human plague cases in Vietnam by regulating the density of the flea population and by regulating the efficiency of X. cheopis in transmitting the plague bacterium (23).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Liu

Stige

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Proventricular colonization and blockage was hypothesized to result from bacteria-laden clots lodging among the proventricular spines. This hypothesis was compelling because it could also explain the decrease in proventricular blockage and flea-borne transmission during hot weather (Cavanaugh and Marshall 1972). The fibrin-dissolving activity of Pla that predominates at higher temperatures was invoked to explain that phenomenon.…”

Section: The Coagulase Model Of Proventricular Infectionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Yersinia pestis Biofilm in the Flea Vector and Its Role in the Transmission of Plague

Hinnebusch¹,

Erickson²

2008

Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology

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Transmission by fleabite is a relatively recent evolutionary adaptation of Yersinia pestis, the bacterial agent of bubonic plague. To produce a transmissible infection, Y. pestis grows as an attached biofilm in the foregut of the flea vector. Biofilm formation both in the flea foregut and in vitro is dependent on an extracellular matrix (ECM) synthesized by the Yersinia hms gene products. The hms genes are similar to the pga and ica genes of Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus epidermidis, respectively, that act to synthesize a poly-β-1,6-N-acetyl-dglucosamine ECM required for biofilm formation. As with extracellular polysaccharide production in many other bacteria, synthesis of the Hms-dependent ECM is controlled by intracellular levels of cyclic-di-GMP. Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, the food-and water-borne enteric pathogen from which Y. pestis evolved recently, possesses identical hms genes and can form biofilm in vitro but not in the flea. The genetic changes in Y. pestis that resulted in adapting biofilm-forming capability to the flea gut environment, a critical step in the evolution of vector-borne transmission, have yet to be identified. During a flea bite, Y. pestis is regurgitated into the dermis in a unique biofilm phenotype, and this has implications for the initial interaction with the mammalian innate immune response.

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“…In addition, the positive association with wetness, as expressed by the inclusion of band 6, may be indicative of conditions that are conducive to flea survival. In general, fleas are susceptible to desiccation-induced mortality, 41 particularly when temperatures are fairly high as they would be during the month of January when the Landsat images were captured. Vectorial capacity models suggest that as flea survivorship increases, the probability of flea-borne transmission also increases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Human Risk of Exposure to Plague Bacteria in Northwestern Uganda Based on Remotely Sensed Predictors

Eisen¹,

Griffith²,

Borchert³

et al. 2010

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis , has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis .

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The Influence of Climate on the Seasonal Prevalence of Plague in the Republic of Vietnam

Cited by 60 publications

References 0 publications

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Yersinia pestis Biofilm in the Flea Vector and Its Role in the Transmission of Plague

Assessing Human Risk of Exposure to Plague Bacteria in Northwestern Uganda Based on Remotely Sensed Predictors

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