The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany’s most important tree species

Brandl, Susanne; Paul, Carola; Knoke, Thomas; Falk, Wolfgang

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117652

Cited by 44 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Similar to other studies, we found maximum (T max ) and minimum (T min ) temperatures of the warmest and coldest month, respectively, influencing trees survival probabilities (Vanoni et al 2016;Neumann et al 2017;Brandl et al 2020). Maximum temperature shortens the survival time of European beech, oak and Silver fir, which goes in line with other studies (Landmann and Dreyer 2006;Gärtner et al 2008;Cailleret and Davi 2011;Schwarnweber et al 2011;Mette et al 2013;Nestola et al 2018;Brandl et al 2020).…”

Section: Drivers Of Survival Timessupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Surprisingly, the non-native Douglas-fir had the lowest observed survival probability (S (100) = 0.75) in our study area. This goes in line with observations for entire Europe (Brandl et al 2020) but contradicts regionally specific models (Staupendahl and Zucchini 2011). Although the species is known as a long-lived, shade-intolerant or semi-tolerant tree in its natural distribution area in North America (Da Ronch et al 2016), the observed high mortality rate in the study area may result from the species' vulnerability to wind-throw outside its natural range (Albrecht et al 2013).…”

Section: Species-specific Survival Timessupporting

confidence: 86%

“…Stand age, T, at the beginning and end of the observation interval together with the coded event (0/1) was the focus of the survival analysis. We selected stand age instead of other parameters (e.g., dbh, height) as time variable since age is often used in forest economic simulations and is therefore comparable with other models (Griess and Knoke 2013;Netherer et al 2015;Paul et al 2019;Brandl et al 2020). The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function } S(t) of T is defined as (Kaplan and Meier 1958): where } S(0) = 1 , d i is the trees that fail at t (i) and n i represents the total number of subjects at risk at t (i) .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The highest age-dependent survival probabilities were observed for the long-lived species European beech, Sessile oak, Pedunculate oak and Silver fir. Comparable survival probabilities at the age of 100 years were obtained by Neumann et al (2017) and Neuner et al (2014) for Norway spruce and European beech, whereas others report lower survival probabilities for Norway spruce at corresponding ages (Staupendahl and Zucchini 2011;Griess et al 2012;Brandl et al 2020). This difference might result from (1) the spatial and temporal differences in the underlying data, (2) by using different approaches for calculating the Kaplan-Meier survival curves (one observation period per tree versus multiple observations), (3) from the study design (crown condition data) or (4) from generally differing environmental conditions.…”

Section: Species-specific Survival Timesmentioning

confidence: 95%

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Ninety-five years of observed disturbance-based tree mortality modeled with climate-sensitive accelerated failure time models

Maringer

Stelzer²,

Paul

et al. 2020

Eur J Forest Res

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Modeling disturbance-based tree mortality is becoming increasingly important in the discussion of how to adapt forests to climate change and to preserve their ecosystem services and mitigate the risk of economic losses. In this study, we fitted species-specific interval-censored Accelerated Failure Time models for five major tree species to derive the influence of climate, soil, silvicultural measures, stand and tree characteristics on survival times. We coded all disturbance-based mortality causes as events and analyzed 473,501 individual trees distributed across 2248 long-term (1929–2014) forest growth and yield plots in southwestern Germany. We observed different survival probabilities among tree species with Douglas-fir having the lowest survival probability at age 100 years, followed by Norway spruce and Silver fir. Contrastingly, beech and oak had survival probabilities above 0.98 at age 100 years. Most important factor influencing these survival times was climate. Higher summer temperature shortens the survival time of beech, Silver fir and oak, while Norway spruce suffers more from warmer and wetter winters. Beside climatic factors, base saturation showed a significant positive relationship to survival time for all investigated tree species, except for Norway spruce, which had shorter survival times with increasing cation exchange capacity of the soil. Additionally, short-term effects of destabilization after thinning were found. In conclusion, favoring broadleaved tree species, avoiding heavy thinning in older stands and limiting tree age reduce the probability of disturbance-based tree mortality. However, some of the effects found that cause-unspecific mortality modeling has limited potential to describe the mortality–climate change relation.

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Section: Drivers Of Survival Timessupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Species-specific Survival Timessupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Species-specific Survival Timesmentioning

confidence: 95%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Ninety-five years of observed disturbance-based tree mortality modeled with climate-sensitive accelerated failure time models

Maringer

Stelzer²,

Paul

et al. 2020

Eur J Forest Res

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“…A better understanding of the effects of tree species composition and site conditions on soil microorganisms has important implications for forest management, especially in temperate and boreal regions where tree species richness is low and managed forests typically are dominated by only one or a few species (Knoke et al, 2008; Hu et al, 2009; Bauhus et al, 2010). While Norway spruce currently is the most popular high-yielding timber species in Central Europe, in recent years it has have been damaged severely by extreme weather conditions and the outbreak of bark beetles, events that are predicted to occur more frequently and at higher severity in future (Biedermann et al, 2019; Brandl et al, 2020; Pettit et al, 2020). For reducing the risk of damage and maintaining economic gains, planting of mixed forests including non-native species such as Douglas-fir is increasingly discussed (Pretzsch et al, 2017; Ammer et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of soil microbial communities to mixed forests of European beech and conifers: Variations with site conditions

Scheu

2020

Preprint

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Coniferous and deciduous trees growing in pure and mixed forests are likely to supply different resources to soil microorganisms thereby shaping microbial communities. However, effects of forest type on microorganisms and their variations with site conditions remain poorly studied. We investigated microbial basal respiration, microbial biomass (substrate-induced respiration method) and phospholipid-derived fatty acids (PLFAs) in the litter and soil at four nutrient-rich and four nutrient-poor sites in Lower Saxony, Germany. At each site, pure stands of European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), as well as mixed species stands of beech and spruce, and beech and Douglas-fir were investigated, i.e. a total of 40 forest stands. Forest type only affected soil microorganisms at nutrient-poor sites, but not at nutrient-rich sites. In coniferous and mixed forests at nutrient-poor sites, basal respiration and microbial biomass was lower and stress indicators were higher than in beech forests. Compared to beech, microbial biomass (−59%) and stress indicators (+46 – +87%) in Douglas-fir forests were particularly affected both in litter and in soil at nutrient-poor sites. The results suggest that higher resources in beech forests beneficially affect microorganisms in litter and soil at nutrient-poor sites, whereas Douglas-fir forests are characterized by low resources as indicated by low microbial specific respiration and fungal PLFA. The results indicate that in particular at nutrient-poor sites long-term effects of planting non-native tree species such as Douglas-fir on ecosystem functioning need further attention before planting pure or mixed forests of Douglas-fir with beech at large spatial scale. By contrast, from the perspective of microbial communities and their functioning planting Douglas-fir at nutrient-rich sites appear of little concern. Overall, the results highlight the importance of resources in determining microbial community structure and functioning, and document the sensitivity of soil microorganisms to planting non-native tree species differing in the provisioning of these resources from native species.

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Valuing the invaluable: park visitors' perceived importance and willingness to pay for urban park trees in Pakistan

2021

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In complex urban systems, urban parks are rare hot spots of nature, responsible for delivering a range of ecosystem services. Trees are critically important components of urban parks that provide many benefits, and, at the same time, face challenges such as lack of funds, mismanagement, climate change, pests, and diseases. There is a growing need to increase the urban tree cover to sustain urban ecosystems. Successful policymaking requires engagement with all stakeholders, especially park users. An understanding of how people's perceptions of the benefits and challenges faced by urban park trees is pivotal to making decisions that have long-standing support. We surveyed 521 park visitors in Multan, Pakistan, to assess their valuation of urban park trees, their understanding of the challenges faced by trees, and their willingness to pay (WTP) for increasing tree cover in urban parks. We found that people widely appreciated the ecosystem services provided by park trees. Provision of oxygen, shade, and clean air was considered the greatest benefits while cutting down, lack of space, and urbanization were perceived as the biggest challenges to trees. Respondents showed a WTP and believed in government-public cooperation for increasing tree cover. Income, age, and education were significant predictors of WTP. The study reflects findings in other development and geography contexts and highlights the need for broader dissemination of information on critical threats to park trees and underlines the potential for engaging locally to maximize effectively in the management of park trees.

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The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany’s most important tree species

Cited by 44 publications

References 53 publications

Ninety-five years of observed disturbance-based tree mortality modeled with climate-sensitive accelerated failure time models

Ninety-five years of observed disturbance-based tree mortality modeled with climate-sensitive accelerated failure time models

Response of soil microbial communities to mixed forests of European beech and conifers: Variations with site conditions

Valuing the invaluable: park visitors' perceived importance and willingness to pay for urban park trees in Pakistan

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