This paper analyses long-term and seasonal changes in the North Sea plankton community during the period 1970 to 2008. Based on Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data covering 38 yr, major changes in both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance and community structure were identified. Regime changes were detected around 1978, 1989 and 1998. The first 2 changes have been discussed in the literature and are defined as a cold episodic event (1978) and a regime shift towards a warm dynamic regime (1989). The effect of these 2 regime changes on plankton indicators was assessed and checked against previous studies. The 1998 change represents a shift in the abundance and seasonal patterns of dinoflagellates and the dominant zooplankton group, the neritic copepods. Furthermore, environmental factors such as air temperature, wind speed and the North Atlantic water inflow were identified as potential drivers of change in seasonal patterns, and the most-likely environmental causes for detected changes were assessed. We suggest that a change in the balance of dissolved nutrients driven by these environmental factors was the cause of the latest change in plankton community structure, which in turn could have affected the North Sea fish community.
KEY WORDS: Seasonal patterns · Regime shift · North Sea · Dinoflagellates · Zooplankton · Nutrients
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherMar Ecol Prog Ser 462: [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38] 2012 ulation, a very abundant dinoflagellate which may have lost its niche as a result of the late development of the spring bloom.A second overall change in North Sea plankton occurred during the 1980s (Reid et al. 2001a, Beaugrand & Ibanez 2004, Alheit et al. 2005, Weijerman et al. 2005, McQuatters-Gollop et al. 2007. During this period there was a strong biogeographic shift of warm-water copepod species (associated with a decrease in cold-water species), as well as of warmwater fish species, in the northeast Atlantic (Beaugrand & Reid 2003). This indicated a change in the pelagic ecosystem of the northeast Atlantic towards a warmer dynamic regime, which seems to have been driven by climatic variables.In contrast with the late 1970s cold episodic event, the North Sea entered a warm-biological dynamic regime after the North Sea warm episodic event from 1988 to 1992 (Edwards et al. 2002). This regime can be characterised by (1) higher Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI) values in the central North Sea, particularly during winter and summer; (2) an extended phytoplankton season; and (3) a change in the zooplankton community structure (Reid et al. 2001a). All these changes have been related to different environmental factors, such as the increase in SST and changing Atlantic water inflow through the northern North Sea (Reid et al. 2003).SST increase has also been related to changes in the meroplankton of the North Sea, particularly Echinocardium cordatum, decapod crustaceans, and bivalve larvae (Kirby et...