The infection and recovery periods of the 2022 outbreak of monkey-pox virus disease

Abstract

The Monkey-pox virus disease (MPVD) is a type of the pox disease similar to the smallpox disease. This disease produces rashes with lesions on the skin. The MPVD is an endemic in some countries of Africa, however, a recent outbreak of this disease started to appear in some countries, such as the United Kingdom, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Australia, Brazil, and the United States. Lots of indicators are employed for forecasting the 2022 outbreak of the MPVD such as the infection period, the recovery period, the force of infection, the incubation period of the disease…..etc. The aim of this study is finding the infection period, and the recovery period of the 2022 outbreak of the monkey-pox virus disease in two countries: the United States, and Spain. We apply the simulation and analytical methods on a simple epidemic model, which is the SIRD infectious disease model, for finding the previous periods. We found that the infection period of the recent outbreak of the MPVD varies from 10 days to 20 days, while we found that the recovery periods of the recent outbreak of the MPVD varies from 15 days to 30 days. Besides, we found that the average value of the infection period of the 2022 outbreak of the MPVD is about two weeks, and the average value of the recovery period of the 2022 outbreak of the MPVD is about three weeks. The analytical solution with the simulation algorithm which we used in this study can be expanded for other forecasting parameters of the MPVD, and also for multiple countries.

The study of human monkeypox disease in 2022 using the epidemic models: herd immunity and the basic reproduction number case

“…Other studies discussed the possible vaccinations of the 2022 human MPOX, such as the studies 6 – 9 . Also, some studies discussed some of the indicators of the 2022 human MPOX disease, such as the infection period of the pandemic and other indicators 10 , 11 . Besides, some studies concern the case of the MPOX in a specific country, such as Pakistan 12 .…”