The individual risk assessment of terrorism.

Monahan, John

doi:10.1037/a0025792

Cited by 147 publications

(176 citation statements)

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“…The idea that negative emotions may act as a deterrent runs contrary to the current view that these emotions are potential motivational 'risk' factors (Horgan, 2008;Monahan, 2012). Future research ought to tease apart the causal relation between negative emotions and (dis)engagement in violent extremism.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 41%

“…Indeed, access to, and use of, extremist websites may act as one factor contributing to initial involvement in violent extremism Male Youth Perceptions of 15 (Hegghammer, 2006;Helmus et al, 2013). These websites present ideological arguments that culminate in support for violence (Gerstenfeld, Grant, & Chiang, 2003), and individual's espousing such beliefs are considered to be at greater risk of engaging in violent extremism (Monahan, 2012;Pressman, 2009). For those individuals who are not already socially connected, exposure to new ideas such as these is a potential factor putting them at risk of radicalization (McCauley & Moskalenko, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, Pressman (2009) notes that contextual factors such as contact with violent extremists and a community that is supportive of political or ideologically motivated violence may encourage engagement in violent extremist activities (see also Ginges, Atran, Sachdeva, & Medin, 2011;Horgan, 2008;Monahan, 2012). Similarly, the belief that one must right a wrong or has a grievance has also been identified as a factor potentially increasing the Male Youth Perceptions of 16 likelihood that an individual may engage in violent extremism (McCauley & Moskalenko, 2011;Monahan, 2012;Pressman, 2009). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future research should overcome this limitation. In addition, future research could also involve participants who might be at greatest risk of radicalization and engagement in violent extremism, although this might be challenging given the lack of an effective risk assessment tool in this domain (Monahan, 2012). However, there are some factors such as ideology, affiliations, grievances, and moral emotions (Monahan, 2012) that may be used to 'screen and select' participants.…”

Section: Male Youth Perceptions Of 19mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our focus on male youth was informed by research indicating that males are more likely to engage in violent extremism than females, and that those engaged in violent extremism are more likely to be younger than older (Bakker, 2006; see also Monahan, 2012).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Male Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism: towards a Test of Rational Choice Theory

Dhami¹,

Murray

2016

Span. J. Psychol.

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University, for her assistance in acting as an external coder, blind to the aims of the study. Male Youth Perceptions of 2 AbstractUnderstanding how people perceive the pros and cons of risky behaviors such as terrorism or violent extremism represents a first step in developing research testing rational choice theory aiming to explain and predict peoples' intentions to engage in, or support, these behaviors.Accordingly, the present study provides a qualitative, exploratory analysis of a sample of 57 male youths' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of: (a) accessing a violent extremist website, (b) joining a violent extremist group, and (c) leaving such a group. Youth perceived significantly more drawbacks than benefits of joining a violent extremist group (p = . In the present paper we suggest that understanding how people perceive the pros and cons of violent extremism represents a first step in developing theoretically-guided research that aims to explain and predict peoples' intentions and decisions to support and (dis)engage in violent extremism. The research reported in the present paper takes this first step by providing a qualitative, exploratory analysis of male youth's perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of specific behaviors associated with violent extremism. Before describing our approach, we briefly outline the theoretical perspective that our exploratory work can contribute to, and review relevant past research. We also discuss the methodological challenges that we (and other researchers) have faced. "virtually none of them has been tested in a systematic way." This is partly because they are not always amenable to testing due to a lack of precision or specification. In addition, not all theories have clear implications for counter-terrorism policy. The present study was not designed to test a specific theory. Rather, it was designed to provide exploratory data that might lead to future tests of a rational choice approach to violent extremism.Rational choice theories employed in psychological and criminological research draw in an approximate manner on the expected utility model in Economics (e.g., Gruber, 2001); extending its focus on subjective expected utility. According to this theory, a rational decision-maker (in this case a violent extremist) would decide whether or not to engage in violent extremism by assessing the subjective importance of the possible benefits and drawbacks of engaging in the behavior, in addition to assessing the subjective probabilities of these possible outcomes. The expected utility of the behavior would be determined by the probability-weighted difference between the benefits and drawbacks. The more that the weighted difference favors the benefits, the more likely the decision-maker is to engage in the relevant behavior.2 Thus, rational choice theory can help researchers to understand the cognitive process by which an individual makes the above risk assessments and then acts on them. In fact, researchers can test more or less 'rational' models (e.g., Dhami...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 41%