The (In)Vulnerable: the futures of the Halligen in the North Sea in the face of climate change

Abstract

Islands and small island groups are among the areas most affected by global climate change and face major adaptation challenges. Their role as hotspots of climate change impacts is widely recognized in the scientific literature, and it is not uncommon for small islands to act as poster children for particular climate-related vulnerability. Nonetheless, many island communities have a long tradition of living with oceanic influences, and the question is whether such habitats, where terrestrial and marine ecosystems overlap, have characteristics that contribute to greater self-regulation and resilience. The question is further whether and how the future or possible futures of such an exposed region and society could unfold, considering the negative impact of climate change and the resulting burden of natural disasters. The Halligen in the southern North Sea are an exceptional example of such a situation, and they are to be examined in this study particularly due to their extremely uncertain future. Questions regarding the future arise even more urgently due to the rapidly advancing sea-level rise in the course of climate change. They were already evident in a local field research in 2014 and for current reasons the collected interview material shall be analyzed under this prospective point of view. So what, under these harsh circumstances, might the futures of the Halligen look like? What does it mean for the future of a habitat and a society when the constant risk of storm surges is multiplied by the global risk of climate change and rising sea level? By examining this question from an interdisciplinary perspective in the present study, multiple answers can be provided. The futures differ significantly depending on the perspective from which one looks into the future. However, it is precisely this multidimensionality and heterogeneity that can pose an advantage when considering the unpredictability of future developments. Choosing this very specific region for the study also adds to the benefit – because: If the conditions change, if the strength of the environmental influences change in regions where two ecosystems overlap and which are particularly vulnerable due to their islandness, dealing with and adapting to the consequences of global warming becomes a glimpse into the future of all of us.