The Importance of Scenario Planning Functions for Company’s Performance in The Contemporary Environment

Abstract

Today ‘s turbulent environment delivered through the global complexity and dynamic change requires from companies to develop the ability for researching the factors that initiate changes and capacity for anticipating the possible solutions to potential problems. Throughout history, the methods of forecasting and later the strategic planning, as way of establishing a vital link between the organization's future and the environment, are continuously applied. They complement themselves, but the strategic actions and business models they point out are limited only to the known events, factors and actors. With the scenario planning, companies develop plans for different alternative futures that may unfold and contain significant changes in the environment for which they otherwise have limited data. Through narratives and graphically presenting number of alternative stories about the future environment, companies actually include structurally different and unexpected future events, factors and actors in their plans and prepare adequate courses of actions for them. The purpose of this research paper is to emphasize the role that scenario planning has in dealing with uncertainty in the environment as the only certain element of the future, and thus to expose its functions it offers to managers to test their alternatives in dealing with potential constraints or seizing future opportunities. For the research, empirical research was conducted among 52 Macedonian companies by distributing questionnaires (online and physically) for determining the degree of application of scenario planning method and its functions.