The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

LaBeau, Meredith Ballard; Mayer, Alex; Griffis, V. W.; Watkins, D; Robertson, Dale M.; Gyawali, Rabi

doi:10.1007/s10533-015-0149-5

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, wet or dry, are projected across the Great Lakes region [Kunkel et al, 2013]. Stream discharges during low-flow, summer months could be substantially lower in the region; these reductions in low flows will vary widely across the basin [LaBeau et al, 2015].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing the greatest Blue Economy: Water productivity, fresh water depletion, and virtual water trade in the Great Lakes basin

2016

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The Great Lakes basin hosts the world's most abundant surface fresh water reserve. Historically an industrial and natural resource powerhouse, the region has suffered economic stagnation in recent decades. Meanwhile, growing water resource scarcity around the world is creating pressure on water-intensive human activities. This situation creates the potential for the Great Lakes region to sustainably utilize its relative water wealth for economic benefit. We combine economic production and trade datasets with water consumption data and models of surface water depletion in the region. We find that, on average, the current economy does not create significant impacts on surface waters, but there is some risk that unregulated large water uses can create environmental flow impacts if they are developed in the wrong locations. Water uses drawing on deep groundwater or the Great Lakes themselves are unlikely to create a significant depletion, and discharge of groundwater withdrawals to surface waters offsets most surface water depletion. This relative abundance of surface water means that science-based management of large water uses to avoid accidentally creating "hotspots" is likely to be successful in avoiding future impacts, even if water use is significantly increased. Commercial water uses are the most productive, with thermoelectric, mining, and agricultural water uses in the lowest tier of water productivity. Surprisingly for such a water-abundant economy, the region is a net importer of water-derived goods and services. This, combined with the abundance of surface water, suggests that the region's water-based economy has room to grow in the 21st century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing the greatest Blue Economy: Water productivity, fresh water depletion, and virtual water trade in the Great Lakes basin

2016

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“…Additionally, given the results of Labeau et al. () and others, seasonal fixed effects were added to the models in Equations ( and ) to account for seasonal fluctuations of phosphorus unaccounted for by the temperature variable. Fixed effects are easily accounted for within regression analyses by simply including binary (0,1) variables that control for unobserved heterogeneity associated with each season.…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…; Mustapha and Abdu ; Labeau et al. ; and many others). However, to our knowledge, these studies do not interpret the meaning of the coefficients of such models as elasticities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Changes in temperature, along with changes in seasonality, will likely pose significant impacts to nutrient patterns within water bodies (Zhu et al 2008;Kundzewicz and Krysanova 2010;Labeau et al 2015;Tang et al 2015). Climate scientists report with high confidence that the U.S. will experience a significant increase in the number of hot days by the end of the 21st Century (Gleason et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In lieu of OAT approaches, a multivariate analysis to determine sensitivity of water quality to changes in climate is desired. Many multivariate models have been developed to describe the relationship between water quality and other factors (i.e., Driver and Tasker 1990;Cohn et al 1992;Koklu et al 2010;Nasir et al 2011;Mustapha and Abdu 2012;Labeau et al 2015; and many others). However, to our knowledge, these studies do not interpret the meaning of the coefficients of such models as elasticities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

Munson

Vogel

Durant

2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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We investigate the sensitivity of phosphorus loading (mass/time) in an urban stream to variations in climate using nondimensional sensitivity, known as elasticity, methods commonly used by economists and hydrologists. Previous analyses have used bivariate elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but such bivariate relations cannot reflect the complex multivariate nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using fixed‐effect multivariate regression methods, we obtain two phosphorus models (nonparametric and parametric) for an urban stream with high explanatory power that can both estimate phosphorus loads and the elasticity of phosphorus loading to changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. A case study demonstrates total phosphorus loading depends significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow events, and flow rate, yet the elasticity of total phosphorus to all these factors remains relatively constant throughout the year. The elasticity estimates reported here can be used to examine how nutrient loads may change under future climate conditions.

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A spatially explicit statistical model to quantify nutrient sources, pathways, and delivery at the regional scale

2017

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The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

Cited by 7 publications

References 53 publications

Developing the greatest Blue Economy: Water productivity, fresh water depletion, and virtual water trade in the Great Lakes basin

Developing the greatest Blue Economy: Water productivity, fresh water depletion, and virtual water trade in the Great Lakes basin

Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

A spatially explicit statistical model to quantify nutrient sources, pathways, and delivery at the regional scale

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