The Implications of Rising Public Debt on Unemployment in Nigeria: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach

Ogonna, Igberi Christiana; Idenyi, Odo Stephen; Ifeyinwa, Anoke Charity; Gabriel, Nwachukwu Udochukwu

doi:10.9734/arjass/2016/26394

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The result supports the findings of Okonjo-Iweala et al (2003) and Folawewo and Adeboje (2017). Unlike its long-run negative significant impact, in all four specifications, external debt stocks had a negative but insignificant short-run effect on rate of unemployment, suggesting that borrowing (public) should exclusively be for capital projects that have the potential to create jobs (Ogonna et al, 2016).…”

Section: Estimation Techniques and Empirical Analysissupporting

confidence: 85%

“…If funds are borrowed and appropriately channeled into productive ventures, not only will this create employment in the economy, but the profit generated from such investments can also be used to service such debt (Ogonna et al, 2016). Proponents of the second view maintain that, unlike tax finance, public debt passes the burden of collective action on future generations (Ogonna et al, 2016). Through debt financing, existing taxpayers had their taxes reduced.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria

Young

2021

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies

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The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature suggests that, besides the fact that findings are mixed and do not provide conclusive evidences, one hardly ever comes across studies exclusively on African countries. Likewise, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data seem to dominate the literature. In light of these, the current study examines the nature of the said relationship, over the period 1970–2019, in Nigeria in a multivariate and dynamic framework. Employing Bounds testing procedure, the article finds that both the short-run and long-run impacts of cohort size on overall unemployment rate are positive and statistically significant. This suggests that aggregate unemployment rate tends to be higher when many young people supply labor. In view of these findings, the article recommends that government should collaborate with private sector to develop and implement functional microcredit schemes. Such schemes should be flexibly structured to avert institutional bottlenecks and enhance accountability and transparency in their management.

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Section: Estimation Techniques and Empirical Analysissupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria

Young

2021

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies

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“…This result is relevant to the research conducted by Chang and Shen (2011), Floyd (2012), and He (2013. The correlation and effect between the exchange rate on unemployment can be referred from Nyahokwe and Newadi (2013), and Ogonna, Idenyi, Ifeyinwa, and Gabriel (2016). Nyahokwe and Newadi (2016), who explained that the exchange rate had a significant effect on unemployment in South Africa.…”

Section: Previous Empirical Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nyahokwe and Newadi (2016), who explained that the exchange rate had a significant effect on unemployment in South Africa. Furthermore, Ogonna et al (2016) indicated that public debt had a significant impact on unemployment in the long term. In contrast, Aurangzeb and Asif (2013) analysed the effect of inflation, GDP, exchange rate, and population on the unemployment in Pakistan, India, and China.…”

Section: Previous Empirical Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

External Debt, Exchange Rate, and Unemployment in Selected ASEAN Countries

Cahyadin

Ratwianingsih

2020

jesp

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This research examines the empirical model of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected ASEAN Countries during 1980-2017. The countries included Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The data were collected from the World Bank publications. The ARDL-ECM and Granger Causality Test (GCT) were employed to address the research objectives. The findings indicated that there were short-term effects on each empirical model (external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment). Furthermore, the stability test exhibited that the models were precise and stable. The GCT result showed that there was a causal between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment, especially in Indonesia. Moreover, the linkages between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected ASEAN Countries were comovement. Therefore, the governments are expected to emphasis on macroeconomic policies, such as pro-stability of the exchange rate, external debt risk management, and pro-poor.

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“…The growing public debt obligations are an obstacle to the establishment of new development projects and thus prevent the reduction of unemployment. Therefore, public borrowing should only be justified in those situations where it is used for capital projects that can open up new jobs and positive financial indicators (Christiana Ogonna et al 2016). Mucuk and Tahir Demirsel (2013) investigated the relationship between foreign direct investment and unemployment, and they also concluded that in some countries direct foreign investment has a positive effect on unemployment while in other countries they have a negative impact.…”

Section: The Theoretical Background Of Macroeconomic and Institutionamentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining the Unemployment Determinants of the Post-Transition Central European EU Member Countries

2019

MGT

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Aim of the research is to define unemployment determinants of the labor markets on the example of post-transition Central European eu member countries-Poland, Czech, Slovak, Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia. The purpose of the paper is to point out the role and importance of studying the labor market unemployment determinants of the post-transition countries to provide a proposal for reducing unemployment. In this paper as independent macroeconomic variables have been analyzed gross domestic product, public debt, labor force participation rate and institutional variables like some fixed-term and part-time contracts and expenditures for active and passive labor market policies. An analysis of the labor market unemployment determinants for the Central European eu member countries has been conducted by econometric models of multiple linear regression for each country to determine whether there are differences in unemployment rates between countries within one panel. Results of the research show that in almost all countries, public debt as a macroeconomic variable has a significant impact on unemployment growth, while passive labor market policies of the institutional variables have the most significant impact on the level of unemployment.

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The Implications of Rising Public Debt on Unemployment in Nigeria: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach

Cited by 14 publications

References 6 publications

Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria

Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria

External Debt, Exchange Rate, and Unemployment in Selected ASEAN Countries

Defining the Unemployment Determinants of the Post-Transition Central European EU Member Countries

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