The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Mata, Luis; Arnell, Nigel W.; Döll, Petra; Jiménez, Blanca; Miller, Kathleen A.; Oki, Taikan; Şen, Zekâi̇; Shiklomanov, I. A.

doi:10.1623/hysj.53.1.3

Cited by 699 publications

(423 citation statements)

References 23 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…The Iberian Peninsula is among the areas where projections of climate change impacts are more significant, particularly during summer when the ensemble average change (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A1B scenario) can be as higher as 5°C in surface air temperature and − 40% in annual precipitation (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008). Other projections for the end of the 21st century and under the IS92a scenario suggest a decrease of 10-50% in the ensemble mean change of annual runoff and a change in the recurrence of droughts from 100-year to just 10-year return periods (Kundzewicz et al, 2008;Lehner et al, 2005). Our results corroborate this latter scenario, since they consider that the Beça River basin will suffer decreases in runoff that can reach over 50%, given the A2 scenario.…”

Section: Future Climate Change and Land-use Scenarios Impacts On Margmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Santos

Fernandes

Varandas

et al. 2015

Science of The Total Environment

104

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• Develop a verification scheme to check stress on M. margaritifera based on thresholds • Assess the impact of future climate change in conservation status of M. margaritifera • Assess the impact of land-use in habitat requirements of M. margaritifera • Propose conservation measures to prevent extinction of M. margaritifera in Portugal a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o In this study, we assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) under different scenarios and how this will translate into the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This species is currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by projected declines in precipitation for the 21st century, with implication on the river flows and water depths that might decrease below the species requisites. This situation could be especially critical during summer conditions since the ecological flows may not be assured and several river stretches may be converted into stagnant isolated pools. The habitat connectivity will also be affected with reverberating effects on the mobility of Salmo trutta, the host of M. margaritifera, with consequences in the reproduction and recruitment of pearl mussels. In addition, humanrelated threats mostly associated with the presence of dams and an predicted increases in wildfires in the future. While the presence of dams may decrease even further the connectivity and river flow, with wildfires the major threat will be related to the wash out of burned areas during storms, eventually causing the disappearance of the mussels, especially the juveniles. In view of future climate and land-use change scenarios, conservation strategies are proposed, including the negotiation of ecological flows with the dam promoters, the replanting of riparian vegetation along the water course and the reintroduction of native tree species throughout the catchment.

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Section: Future Climate Change and Land-use Scenarios Impacts On Margmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Santos

Fernandes

Varandas

et al. 2015

Science of The Total Environment

104

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“…Rapid population growth and climate change are causing the availability of fresh water resources around the world to vary significantly in both space and time (Kundzewicz et al, 2008, Oki andKanae, 2006), leading to increased reliance on groundwater withdrawal (Miller, 2003, Pangarkar et al, 2011, Richey et al, 2015 as well as increased demand for producing fresh water from saline sources through desalination, including groundwater desalination, seawater desalination (Warsinger et al, 2014), agricultural water reuse (McCool et al, 2010), and potable water reuse (Yarlagadda et al, 2011). The dominant technology used to meet these demands is reverse osmosis (RO), which is the most efficient technology for most water sources .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy efficiency of batch and semi-batch (CCRO) reverse osmosis desalination

et al. 2016

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ABSTRACT:As reverse osmosis (RO) desalination capacity increases worldwide, the need to reduce its specific energy consumption becomes more urgent. In addition to the incremental changes attainable with improved components such as membranes and pumps, more significant reduction of energy consumption can be achieved through time-varying RO processes including semi-batch processes such as closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) and fully-batch processes that have not yet been commercialized or modeled in detail. In this study, numerical models of the energy consumption of batch RO (BRO), CCRO, and the standard continuous RO process are detailed. Two new energy-efficient configurations of batch RO are analyzed. Batch systems use significantly less energy than continuous RO over a wide range of recovery ratios and source water salinities.Relative to continuous RO, models predict that CCRO and batch RO demonstrate up to 37 % and 64 % energy savings, respectively, for brackish water desalination at high water recovery. For batch RO and CCRO, the primary reductions in energy use stem from atmospheric pressure brine discharge and reduced streamwise variation in driving pressure. Fully-batch systems further reduce energy consumption by not mixing streams of different concentrations, which CCRO does. These results demonstrate that time-varying processes can significantly raise RO energy efficiency.

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“…The chaotic nature of the climate system, the important feedbacks between its components, our incomplete and/or approximate representation of this very complex system and its intrinsic variability make the assessment of the uncertainties a required step in any climate projections in order to completely assess CC impacts and develop more efficient adaptation strategies (Bronstert et al, 2007;New et al, 2007;Stainforth et al, 2007;Kundzewicz et al, 2008). Information transfer from the scientific realm to water managers is critical as climate sciences and available projections are rapidly evolving (Milly et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Mailhot

Beauregard

Talbot

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Annual maxima (AM) series of precipitation from 15 simulations of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) have been analysed for gridpoints covering Canada and the northern part of United States. The NARCCAP Regional Climate Models' simulations have been classified into the following three groups based on the driving data used at the RCMs boundaries: (1) NCEP (6 simulations); (2) GCM-historical (5 simulations); and (3) GCM-future (4 simulations). Historical simulations are representative of the 1968-2000 period while future simulations cover the 2041-2070 period. A reference common grid has been defined to ease the comparison. Multi-model average intensities of AM precipitation of 6-, 12-, 24-, 72-, and 120-h for 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods have been estimated for each simulation group. Comparison of results from NCEP and GCM-historical groups shows good overall agreement in terms of spatial distribution of AM intensities. Comparison of GCM-future and GCM-historical groups clearly shows widespread increases with median relative changes across all gridpoints ranging from 12 to 18% depending on durations and return periods. Fourteen Canadian climatic regions have been used to define regional projections and average regional changes in intense precipitation have been estimated for each duration and return period. Uncertainties on these regional values, resulting from inter-model variability, were also estimated. Results suggest that inland regions (e.g. Ontario and more specifically Southern Ontario, the Prairies, Southern Quebec) will experience the largest relative increases in AM intensities while coastal regions (e.g. Atlantic Provinces and the West Coast) will experience the smallest ones. These projections are most valuable inputs for the assessment of future impact of climate change on water infrastructures and the development of more efficient adaptation strategies.

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The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

Cited by 699 publications

References 23 publications

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Energy efficiency of batch and semi-batch (CCRO) reverse osmosis desalination

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

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