The Impacts of Income Transfer Programs on Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: An Integrated Microsimulation and Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Cury, Samir; Coelho, Allexandro E. Mori; Callegari, Isabela; Pedrozo, Euclides

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1734788

Cited by 10 publications

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References 34 publications

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“…Information on the positive impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes on poverty at the national level comes from countries where they have considerable scope and the amounts of transfers are significant, such as Argentina (Galasso and Ravallion, 2004), Brazil (Cury, Coelho and Pedrozo, 2007;Fiszbein and Schady, 2009;Veras Soares and others, 2006), Ecuador (Naranjo, 2008b;Fiszbein and Schady, 2009), Jamaica (Fiszbein and Schady, 2009) and Mexico (Fiszbein and Schady, 2009;Skoufias and McClafferty, 2001). In those where the coverage and amount of the transfers are lower, there is no major impact on poverty.…”

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Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes: The Recent Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

2011

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from the participants in the expert workshop on a rights-based approach to conditional cash transfer programmes held in the FAO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, on 17 and 18 March 2011.United Nations publication ISBN: 978-92-1-121757-5 E-ISBN: 978-92-1-055172-4 LC/G.2497-P N° de venta: E.11. II.G.55 • 2011-263 Copyright © United Nations, September 2011, all rights reserved Printed in United Nations, Santiago, ChileRequests for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, United States of America. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform the United Nations of such reproduction. Cuadernos de la CEPAL ForewordEver since its founding, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has maintained that social development, poverty eradication and, above all, efforts to secure greater equality are the cornerstones of democratic, fair and prosperous societies in the region. This message was made explicit in the publication launched on the occasion of the thirty-third session of the Commission, entitled Time for equality: closing gaps, opening trails (ECLAC, 2010b). In that publication, ECLAC emphasized the importance of taking action on various fronts as a way to secure broader social inclusion, equality and respect for human rights.Designing and implementing social policies that ensure a multidimensional approach to the complex issues of exclusion, vulnerability, inequality and poverty therefore needs to be one of the region's top priorities. A crucial component of that task will be the strengthening of social protection systems.In that connection, the present volume seeks to identify and describe the role played by conditional (or co-responsibility) cash transfers (CCTs) as one of the main tools used in the fight against poverty over the past 15 years in the region. These programmes, whose scope and replication have extended well beyond the region's borders, aim to break the chain of intergenerational transmission of poverty by building human capacity in the most vulnerable families. To that end, CCT schemes provide direct cash transfers that are tied to certain conditions being met, mainly in the areas of school attendance and medical check-ups. They should thus contribute not only to reducing levels of income poverty but also to building human capacity, which is a key component for the sustainable development and advancement of the region's societies. 6 ECLAC The CCTs implemented in various countries of Latin America and the Caribbean share the same basic architecture but exhibit significant differences in their overall conceptual design, including in terms of coverage and implementation. This publication presents a detailed compilation of those differences together with a review of the areas of ongoing discussion, in the hope o...

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Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes: The Recent Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

2011

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“…Além disso, esses dois programas foram responsáveis por 28% da queda do Índice de Gini, no período analisado (7% referente ao BPC e 21% ao PBF). Em outro estudo sobre o impacto do BF e do BPC sobre a distribuição de renda no Brasil, Cury et al (2010), utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral e microssimulação, concluíram que cerca de 20% da queda da desigualdade entre 2003 e 2005 pode ser atribuída a esses dois programas de transferência de renda. Com relação ao nível de pobreza, entretanto, os efeitos foram positivos, mas não muito significativos, pois a variável tributação foi responsável por quase compensar os efeitos dos programas.…”

Section: Estudo Sobre As Inter-relações Entre Programas Sociais Pobrunclassified

Programas sociais brasileiros e sua relação com a pobreza, a desigualdade e o desenvolvimento.

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“…Tais estudos mostram que essas políticas são efetivas, ainda que não sejam o principal vetor de redução de desigualdade, considerando o cenário econômico interno favorável do Brasil nos últimos anos. Entretanto, cabe verificar, ainda, qual o impacto desses programas sobre as diversas variáveis econômicas e não somente sobre a pobreza, conforme já observado por Cury et al (2010).…”

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“…Um efeito similar é apontado por, em relação ao Bolsa Família, e porCury, Coelho e Pedrozo (2007). Ao reduzir a pobreza, o programa pode reduzir a oferta de trabalho, visto que jovens de famílias beneficiárias podem deixar de trabalhar para estudar, idosos podem buscar pela aposentadoria e mães podem se dedicar aos filhos ou, ainda, pode haver resistência de trabalhadores a elevar sua renda, via mercado de trabalho, pelo medo de perder direito aos benefícios.…”

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“…Os motivos, segundo eles, é a diminuição de investimentos públicos na simulação sem endividamento, e o efeito crowding out, que reduz investimentos privados, na política de transferência direta com déficit fiscal.Outro efeito adverso dos programas de transferência de renda refere-se à questão política, visto que tais políticas tornaram-se estratégias de campanha eleitoral, sendo um fator determinante na eleição presidencial de 2006, em especial pelos resultados nas regiões Norte e Nordeste, as mais pobres do país. Além de gerar renda direta para o consumo dos mais pobres, programas como o Bolsa Família redirecionam recursos públicos para pequenos municípios, aquecendo a economia local (CURY;COELHO;PEDROZO, 2007;AZZONI et al, 2007). Almeida(2008) concorda com essa influência política local e explica que a probabilidade de um candidato bem avaliado ganhar a eleição é bastante elevada.…”

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Impactos dos programas de transferência de renda Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) e Bolsa Família sobre a economia brasileira: uma análise de equilíbrio geral

Silva¹

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Impacts of income transfers Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) and Bolsa Família program on the Brazilian economy: a general equilibrium model analysis In this study the economic impacts of two income transfer programs in Brazil, namely the Programa de Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) and the Programa Bolsa Familia were analyzed with the aid of a computable general equilibrium model of Brazil (the TERM-BR model). The values transferred by the programs in the 2005 to 2012 period were calculated, and used as shocks to the model. Four different simulations were run, three with long-term closures and one with a short-term closure. Aggregate results show a reduction of real GDP when the macroeconomic adjustment model is taken from investment and trade balance. GDP only increases when external indebtedness increases. Real household consumption increases in all simulations. Regional GDP increases in regions with the highest number of poor due to the amount of funds transferred. This research concludes that such programs may not be seen as policies of economic growth, but they have positive impacts both on the target regions and on consumption of the poorer families as well.

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The Impacts of Income Transfer Programs on Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: An Integrated Microsimulation and Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Cited by 10 publications

References 34 publications

Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes: The Recent Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes: The Recent Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Programas sociais brasileiros e sua relação com a pobreza, a desigualdade e o desenvolvimento.

Impactos dos programas de transferência de renda Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) e Bolsa Família sobre a economia brasileira: uma análise de equilíbrio geral

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