The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.

Insight into the Impact of COVID-19 on Australian Transportation Sector: An Economic and Community-Based Perspective

“…Regression analysis revealed minimum demand for public transport was observed during COVID-19 in communities with higher proportions of critical employees and vulnerable groups (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years of age). Around half of the agencies suffered a decline before the local spread of COVID-19 possibly began; most of these are in the Midwest of the United States [22,23]. Figure 2 shows the graph representing the per hour demand for transport at the MTA New York City subway.…”

Slowing the spread of COVID-19: Review of “Social distancing” interventions deployed by public transit in the United States and Canada

“…Transit agencies and government leaders are faced with a social equity issue involving the continuation of service provision in communities that are transit dependent. In fact, by analyzing the transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app in the U.S., Liu et al (2020) found that the disparate declines in transit demand reveal different degrees of dependence across communities. One significant result of their analysis is that the demand for transit during this pandemic is very low for people who can easily work at home and it is almost intact for people whose occupation requires a physical presence at the job’s location ( Liu et al 2020 ).…”

“…In fact, by analyzing the transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app in the U.S., Liu et al (2020) found that the disparate declines in transit demand reveal different degrees of dependence across communities. One significant result of their analysis is that the demand for transit during this pandemic is very low for people who can easily work at home and it is almost intact for people whose occupation requires a physical presence at the job’s location ( Liu et al 2020 ). While there is a need to modify the service given the decline in demand, transit providers must carefully weigh their decision to adjust (or reduce) service compared with the need to continue serving transit dependent communities.…”

“…Actual social distancing in transit facilities and on rolling stock must be continuously monitored because service utilization will fluctuate during a pandemic ( Fletcher et al 2014 ). However, by analyzing transit demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, Liu et al (2020) found that there is a very limited research investigating the impact of the pandemic on transit demand. Wang (2014) established that the Taipei underground system lost close to 50% of daily ridership during the peak of the 2003 SARS pandemic.…”

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“…The core procedure of them is to maintain the appropriate physical distances between people and to depend on the existence outdoors instead of indoors to avoid infection as possible [12]. According to LiuID, et al, [13], due to its collective attitude, its lower fare, and its importance for the broad classes of people, public transit is a vital mode of transportation on which many governments depend on to provide transportation systems. With returning to life after lockdown, many people are deeply anxious about being in crowded places such as train, metro and bus stations for fear of infection [14].…”