The Impacts of Climate Change According to the Ipcc

Tol, Richard S.J.

doi:10.1142/s2010007816400042

Cited by 22 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…For relatively conservative temperature changes of 3°C, the models that are used in SCC calculations predict 0-1%/°C (Greenstone et al 2013). Studies cited in the IPCC scientific assessments, for temperature changes of 2.5°C, had mean values of about 0.6%/°C (Tol 2016). Values from Burke et al (2015), for 3°C of warming, range between 2.6 and 20%/°C.…”

Section: Costs Due To Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

The ultimate cost of carbon

2020

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We estimate the potential ultimate cost of fossil-fuel carbon to a long-lived human population over a one million–year time scale. We assume that this hypothetical population is technologically stationary and agriculturally based, and estimate climate impacts as fractional decreases in economic activity, potentially amplified by a human population response to a diminished human carrying capacity. Monetary costs are converted to units of present-day dollars by multiplying the future damage fractions by the present-day global world production, and integrated through time with no loss due from time-preference discounting. Ultimate costs of C range from $10k to $750k per ton for various assumptions about the magnitude and longevity of economic impacts, with a best-estimate value of about $100k per ton of C. Most of the uncertainty arises from the economic parameters of the model and, among the geophysical parameters, from the climate sensitivity. We argue that the ultimate cost of carbon is a first approximation of our potential culpability to future generations for our fossil energy use, expressed in units that are relevant to us.

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Section: Costs Due To Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

The ultimate cost of carbon

2020

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“…Second, there has been little economic analysis across all the IPCC reports (Tol ). In the second assessment report, the IPCC reported a chapter on the social costs of climate change and a chapter on intergenerational equity in the volume 3 of the report entitled ‘Economic dimensions of climate change’ (Arrow et al ; Pearce et al ).…”

Section: Institutional Foundationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the Paris Agreement: Climate change policy negotiations and future directions

Seo¹

2017

Regional Science Policy & Practice

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At the conclusion of the Paris conference, this paper provides a review of the history of international negotiations on global warming for the past three decades with an emphasis on details of Paris agreements. Founding documents of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are reviewed. Major outcomes as well as conflicts on the stringency of global mitigation efforts observed from the series of Conferences of the Parties (COP) since 1992 are explained: Rio Earth Summit, Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accord, Cancun Agreement, Durban Platform, and Paris Agreement. The development of the financial instrument called the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the tensions among the parties on the fund are reviewed. The paper describes the current states of the global negotiations on various fronts at the aftermath of the Paris COP. The paper concludes by putting forth future directions of the negotiations and the ideal policies that can be agreed upon at the international level, which focus on adaptation, technologies, incentives, and exchanges.JEL classification: Q12, Q54

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“…Although attempts to estimate the aggregate cost of mitigation are fraught with uncertainty and a source of some controversy (Tol 2016), scenarios considered in AR5 indicate an annual loss of economic growth in the range of 0.04-0.14 percentage points (from a baseline estimated global growth of 1.6-3% per year) over the course of the 21st century (IPCC 2014, 24).…”

Section: Climate Change Is Badmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Conflict: Taking Stock

Buhaug

2016

Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy

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Is climate change a major security threat? How has research on climate and conflict progressed in recent years? And where should it move forward? This brief essay reflects on some ways in which climatic changes could constitute a threat to peace and stability. Rather than assuming a direct causal link, the essay argues that climate change may exert an indirect and conditional effect on conflict risk, increasing the security gap between affluent societies well able to cope with climate change and societies already suffering from violence and instability, who are unlikely to achieve successful adaptation on their own. For this reason, peace building is quite possibly the most effective climate resilience policy in unstable corners of the world.

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The Impacts of Climate Change According to the Ipcc

Cited by 22 publications

References 91 publications

The ultimate cost of carbon

The ultimate cost of carbon

Beyond the Paris Agreement: Climate change policy negotiations and future directions

Climate Change and Conflict: Taking Stock

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