The impact trajectory of asteroid 2008 TC3

Farnocchia, Davide; Jenniskens, Peter; Robertson, Darrel; Chesley, Steven R.; Dimare, Linda; Chodas, P. W.

doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2017.03.007

Cited by 22 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…So far, there have been 3 cases of asteroids detected before atmospheric impact. These are asteroids 2008 TC3 (Jenniskens et al 2009;Farnocchia et al 2017), 2014 AA (Farnocchia et al 2016), and 2018 LA, all discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey only hours before impact. As large deep surveyors like LSST (Ivezic et al 2008) come online these types of detections are going to become more common, and predicting the consequences of these impacts is going to be desirable.…”

Section: How Frequently Do These Impacts Happen?mentioning

confidence: 98%

Observation of metre-scale impactors by the Desert Fireball Network

Devillepoix

Bland

Sansom

et al. 2018

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

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The Earth is impacted by 35-40 metre-scale objects every year. These meteoroids are the low mass end of impactors that can do damage on the ground. Despite this they are very poorly surveyed and characterised, too infrequent for ground based fireball observation efforts, and too small to be efficiently detected by NEO telescopic surveys whilst still in interplanetary space. We want to evaluate the suitability of different instruments for characterising metre-scale impactors and where they come from. We use data collected over the first 3 years of operation of the continent-scale Desert Fireball Network, and compare results with other published results as well as orbital sensors. We find that although the orbital sensors have the advantage of using the entire planet as collecting area, there are several serious problems with the accuracy of the data, notably the reported velocity vector, which is key to getting an accurate pre-impact orbit and calculating meteorite fall positions. We also outline dynamic range issues that fireball networks face when observing large meteoroid entries.

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Section: How Frequently Do These Impacts Happen?mentioning

confidence: 98%

Observation of metre-scale impactors by the Desert Fireball Network

Devillepoix

Bland

Sansom

et al. 2018

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

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“…The outcomes of the impact location prediction on ground were compared (see Table 1). As reported in Farnocchia et al (2017), we know that if we start the propagation from the same nominal solution, the difference in the nominal impact location due to the use of different numerical integrators is as large as 3 m. Recomputing the orbital solution, the difference slightly increases. This case is linear and the orbit is over-determined, so that the 1-σ uncertainty region is very small, about 0.05 × 0.5 km at impact on ground.…”

Section: Prediction Of the Impact Corridor For 2008 Tcmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…The JPL team provides a precise estimate of the trajectory of 2008 TC 3 and its impact ground track in Farnocchia et al (2017). They performed the orbit determination of 2008 TC 3 after a careful analysis of the astrometric dataset and the selection of the weights to assign to each observation.…”

Section: Prediction Of the Impact Corridor For 2008 Tcmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From one side they accounted for the expected quality of some observers, and on the other side they deweighted the observations toward the end of the arc since they show a gradually poorer quality. We adopted the same scheme for weights Farnocchia et al (2017), where the JPL solution 18 7 is considered 8 . Consequently 308 observations were rejected as outliers.…”

Section: Prediction Of the Impact Corridor For 2008 Tcmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Use of the semilinear method to predict the impact corridor on ground

Dimare

Vigna

Cioci

et al. 2020

Celest Mech Dyn Astr

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We propose an adaptation of the semilinear algorithm for the prediction of the impact corridor on ground of an Earthimpacting asteroid. The proposed algorithm provides an efficient tool, able to reliably predict the impact regions at fixed altitudes above ground with 5 orders of magnitudes less computations than Monte Carlo approaches. Efficiency is crucial when dealing with imminent impactors, which are characterized by high impact probabilities and impact times very close to the times of discovery. The case of 2008 TC3 is a remarkable example, but there are also recent cases of imminent impactors, 2018 LA and 2019 MO, for which the method has been successfully used. Moreover, its good performances make the tool suitable also for the analysis of the impact regions on ground of objects with a more distant impact time, even of the order of many years, as confirmed by the test performed with the first batch of observations of Apophis, giving the possibility of an impact 25 years after its discovery.

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“…It exploded at an estimated 37 kilometres altitude above the Nubian Desert in Sudan. A tracklet of seven observations was enough to determine an Impact Probability (IP) of 99.7% [19]. Soon after discovery, hundreds of astrometric observations submitted to the Minor Planet Center allowed for the computation of the impact corridor and the later retrieval of residuals of the meteorite.…”

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confidence: 99%

New Tools for the Optimized Follow-Up of Imminent Impactors

Mochi

Tommei

2021

Universe

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The solar system is populated with, other than planets, a wide variety of minor bodies, the majority of which are represented by asteroids. Most of their orbits are comprised of those between Mars and Jupiter, thus forming a population named Main Belt. However, some asteroids can run on trajectories that come close to, or even intersect, the orbit of the Earth. These objects are known as Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) or Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and may entail a risk of collision with our planet. Predicting the occurrence of such collisions as early as possible is the task of Impact Monitoring (IM). Dedicated algorithms are in charge of orbit determination and risk assessment for any detected NEO, but their efficiency is limited in cases in which the object has been observed for a short period of time, as is the case with newly discovered asteroids and, more worryingly, imminent impactors: objects due to hit the Earth, detected only a few days or hours in advance of impacts. This timespan might be too short to take any effective safety countermeasure. For this reason, a necessary improvement of current observation capabilities is underway through the construction of dedicated telescopes, e.g., the NEO Survey Telescope (NEOSTEL), also known as “Fly-Eye”. Thanks to these developments, the number of discovered NEOs and, consequently, imminent impactors detected per year, is expected to increase, thus requiring an improvement of the methods and algorithms used to handle such cases. In this paper we present two new tools, based on the Admissible Region (AR) concept, dedicated to the observers, aiming to facilitate the planning of follow-up observations of NEOs by rapidly assessing the possibility of them being imminent impactors and the remaining visibility time from any given station.

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The impact trajectory of asteroid 2008 TC3

Cited by 22 publications

References 23 publications

Observation of metre-scale impactors by the Desert Fireball Network

Observation of metre-scale impactors by the Desert Fireball Network

Use of the semilinear method to predict the impact corridor on ground

New Tools for the Optimized Follow-Up of Imminent Impactors

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