The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia

Abstract

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

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“…5 The literature related to this recent trade war is growing. Among others, see Abiad et al (2018), Amiti et al (2019), Guo et al (2018), Mandelman and Waddle (2019), Tham et al (2019). 6 Notice that the United States follows (approximately) a version of the Taylor rule, which is an interest rate rule (Koenig et al, 2012).…”

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“…Regarding the costs of the US-China trade conflict, Ciuriak and Xiao [53] estimated a 0.062~0.07% decline of global GDP, and Abiad et al [54] found 0.2%~1.0% GDP losses for the G2 countries. Carvalho et al [55] predicted the welfare losses of 39-43 billion dollars to China and 19-24 billion dollars to the US.…”