The Impact of the Shadow Economy on the Reduction of Tax Revenues to the State Budget

Abstract

The aim of the study was to assess and analyse the shadowing of the national economy, as well as to determine the impact of its shadowing on the reduction of tax revenues to the state budget. The research employed general scientific, economic, and mathematical assessment methods, such as regression analysis, correlation analysis, interval forecasts, as well as econometric models of Lacko's household electricity approach, as well as modelling of the shadowing level using the multiple indicators-multiple-causes (MIMIC) model. The calculations and analysis gave grounds to determine the level of the shadow economy of Ukraine based on the state statistics of shadowing trends. There is currently an upward trend estimated to be 37.1% of GDP in 2022 compared with international data, which indicates a rapid growth of the shadow economy from 27% in 2019 to 44% in 2022. An alternative method of assessing the shadowing level was proposed in order to level the peculiarities of calculating the level of shadowing of the economy. According to the calculations, it was 43% in 2022. It was determined that the rapid growth of the shadow economy is an indicator of a reduction in tax revenues, especially in 2022 — by almost 8%. The correlation analysis proved that the increased shadowing level is an indicator of the reduction of tax revenues to the budget of Ukraine. The conducted analysis has certain limitations, therefore it is advisable to further test the hypothesis regarding the indicator of tax revenue reduction on a larger range of data and to apply an alternative method of assessing the shadowing level for developed economies, such as the countries of the European Union (EU).