The impact of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System of the United States on world oil prices

Abstract

The relevance of the presented scientific research lies in the search for new data on foreign economic factors that can change world oil prices. The purpose of the study is to predict the prices of Brent crude oil based on the impact of new external economic factors, because the influence of supply and demand in the energy market has significantly weakened. To achieve the purpose of the study, the following tasks were solved: the theoretical foundations of the oil market were considered; a methodological approach to forecasting world oil prices was selected; as a result, an equation of multiple linear regression with independent variables in the form of indicators of the monetary policy of the United States is constructed, which makes it possible to make a forecast of world oil prices. The research involves general and special scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, monographic, statistical (graphical, tabular, centered moving average method, correlation and regression analysis). The scientific novelty of the study is as follows: based on statistical data on Brent crude oil prices, the effective federal funds rate of the US Federal Reserve, the M2 monetary aggregate in the US, the US dollar index, the US core personal consumption expenditure price index, the unemployment rate in the US for the period January 2014 January 2023, the equation is constructed multiple linear regression with the function of forecasting Brent crude oil prices. The above equation of multiple linear regression reflects the noticeable influence of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System on world oil prices.