The impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Slovenian exports

Gabrielczak, Piotr; Serwach, Tomasz

doi:10.18045/zbefri.2017.1.45

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…No significant impact is found for the Netherlands. Differently from previous studies, Gabrielczak and Serwach (2017) use the SCM to estimate the impact of adopting the euro on the economic complexity of Slovenia exports showing that it increased after euro adoption.…”

Section: Productivity: a Backstage Storymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Data on labor productivity were taken from Penn World Table version 9.0. To measure economic complexity (our mediator), we follow Gabrielczak and Serwach (2017) We implement MASC separately on five different countries adopting the euro in 1998: Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands. We exclude Germany becauseof the German reunification implies that the assumptions of our method as well as synthetic control are likely to be violated.…”

Section: Data and Masc Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control

Mellace

Pasquini

2019

SSRN Journal

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The synthetic control method (SCM) allows estimation of the causal effect of an intervention in settings where panel data on just a few treated units and control units are available. We show that the existing SCM as well as its extensions can be easily modified to estimate how much of the "total" effect goes through observed causal channels. The additional assumptions needed are arguably very mild in many settings. Furthermore, in an illustrative empirical application we estimate the effects of adopting the euro on labor productivity in several countries and show that a reduction in the Economic Complexity Index helped to mitigate the negative short run effects of adopting the new currency in some countries and boosted the positive effects in others.As in Abadie et al. (2015) we assume that ∀ t = 1, ..., T − 1, L * also satisfiesTo easy the notation the subscript t is dropped from the weights. Following Abadie et al.(2010), consider a generic vector of weights W = (w n+1 , ..., w J ) such that w j ≥ 0 for all j = n + 1, ..., J and w n+1 + ... + w J = 1. With these weights (and considering the factor model introduced in the text) the synthetic value of Y 01 1t is given byThe difference between the real potential outcome and the synthetic one is thenLet Y P i be the ((T − 1) × 1) vector with tth element equal to Y it , P i the ((T − 1) × 1) vector with tth element equal to it , η P the ((T − 1) × r) matrix with tth row equal to η t and λ P the ((T − 1) × F ) matrix with tth row equal to λ t . Moreover, let ϕ P (0) be the ((T − 1) × 1) vector with tth element equal to ϕ t (0) and M P i (0) the ((T − 1) × 1) vector with tth element equal to M it (0). We can now write 24Note that we have M P 1t (0) as t < T . It is easy to see that:Similar to Abadie et al. (2010) assume thatAssumption 1 is equivalent to assume no perfect-collinearity among unobserved common factors and implies that (λ P λ P ) −1 exists. We can then multiply both sides of A.2 by (λ P λ P ) −1 λ P to getSubstituting in A.1 and considering a generic post-intervention period t ≥ T , we have

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Section: Productivity: a Backstage Storymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Masc Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control

Mellace

Pasquini

2019

SSRN Journal

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Does the euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia

Gabrielczak

Serwach

2019

Journal of Baltic Studies

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The goal of this article is to assess the impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Estonian exports. Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models of trade would predict that such a policy decision (seen as an example of trade liberalization) may result in specialization in the production of either more or less sophisticated goodsthe effect depends on country's technological advancement and factor endowment. At the same time intensified FDI flows may enhance engagement of a country in international production chains with ambiguous consequences for exports complexity. Since it is impossible to a priori predict the effect monetary integration may have on the complexity, it is reasonable to conduct an empirical (and a posteriori) analysis. The authors applied the Synthetic Control Method to compare the observedpost-adoption levels of exports complexity in Estonia with the counterfactual values with Estoniaremaining outside of the Eurozone. The obtained results show that the adoption of the euro has resulted inthe increase in complexity of exported goods (compared to counterfactual scenario).

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Does European integration make exports more complex?

Serwach

Gabrielczak

2021

Argumenta Oeconomica

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The authors studied the determinants of export complexity aiming at an assessment of the impact of European integration on increased sophistication of exported goods. It is possible that EU membership leads to higher export complexity due to the emergence of new (advancedtechnology-oriented) comparative advantages and inflow of capital, for instance, in the form of FDI. At the same time, countries without the supply conditions necessary to produce sophisticated products, may specialize in goods that are less complex. Such a theoretical ambiguity leads to the need to empirically assess the importance of EU accession for export complexity.The study applied panel data analysis. The results indicate that the European Union may have increased the complexity in member states' exports, especially in the less advanced economies.

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The impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Slovenian exports

Cited by 3 publications

References 15 publications

Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control

Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control

Does the euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia

Does European integration make exports more complex?

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