The Impact of the Declaration of the State of Emergency on the Spread of COVID-19: A Modeling Analysis

Abstract

When encountering the outbreak and early spreading of COVID-19, the Government of Japan imposed gradually upgraded restriction policies and declared the state of emergency in April 2020 for the first time. To evaluate the efficacy of the countering strategies in different periods, we constructed a SEIADR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-documented-recovered) model to simulate the cases and determined corresponding spreading coefficients. The effective reproduction number R t was obtained to evaluate the measures controlling the COVID-19 conducted by the Government of Japan during different stages. It was found that the strict containing strategies during the state of emergency period drastically inhibit the COVID-19 trend. R t was decreased to 1.1123 and 0.8911 in stages 4 and 5 (a state of emergency in April and May 2020) from 3.5736, 2.0126, 3.0672 in the previous three stages when the containing strategies were weak. The state of emergency was declared again in view of the second wave of massive infections in January 2021. We estimated the cumulative infected cases and additional days to contain the COVID-19 transmission for the second state of emergency using this model. R t was 1.028 which illustrated that the strategies were less effective than the previous state of emergency. Finally, the overall infected population was predicted using combined isolation and testing intensity; the effectiveness and the expected peak time were evaluated. If using the optimized control strategies in the current stage, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan could be controlled within 30 days. The total confirmed cases should reduce to less than 4.2 × 10 5 by April 2021. This model study suggested stricter isolating measures may be required to shorten the period of the state of emergency.

Interruption of breast cancer care and importance of inter‐hospital cooperation during the COVID‐19 pandemic: A case report of advanced breast cancer in Fukushima, Japan

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“…Considering that the COVID‐19 pandemic is occurring as successive waves in Japan, it is necessary to not only rely on the introduction of novel telemedicine technology but also to reform and adjust the traditional referral system for medical institutions, especially between urban and rural areas, so that it is suitable for the post‐pandemic era. Telemedicine can be a useful option; however, patients who have been receiving treatment at hospitals in urban areas should be able to continue their treatment in rural areas even when it becomes difficult for them to visit hospitals in urban areas 9 …”

Unravelling the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with the effect of vaccination, vertical transmission and hospitalization

“…SARS-CoV-2, a newly emerged virus which emanated China towards the end of 2019, has induced the current pandemic of COVID-19 as described by the World Health Organization (WHO) in early 2020 [1] . It was the first in the history of its kind from the coronavirus family to have caused a global pandemic [1] , [2] , [3] , [4] . This pandemic has greatly derailed worldwide public health and the economy.…”

“…These studies include examining the disease’s clinical features [19] , and estimating crucial epidemiological parameters, such as reproduction numbers, exponential growth, serial intervals and the infection fatality rate [2] , [3] , [7] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] . Moreover, studies have also assessed reinfection and reactivation [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , the impact of declaring the disease a major public health crisis of international importance [4] , [32] , [33] , the influence of public health awareness on COVID-19 dynamics [34] , optimal control and cost-effectiveness [35] , [36] and the effects of pharmaceutical and NPI measures [6] , [37] . Some studies also adopted fractional calculus to analyze the COVID-19 dynamics to find the optimal control strategies [38] , [39] , [40] .…”

Socioeconomic inequalities in healthcare system efficiency in Japan during COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of the moderating role of vaccination

“…. In addition to the distinctive lifestyle habits of the Japanese (4) and effective government policies for disease prevention (5)(6)(7), some studies attribute this phenomenon to the efficient allocation and coordination of medical resources by local authorities (1,2,8).…”