The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on global real estate capital flows

Abstract

PurposeCOVID-19 has had a significant global impact at many levels, including an impact on global real estate capital flows. This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on global real estate capital flows over 2019–2022 to clearly articulate the extent of this impact on global real estate capital flows across regions, countries, major cities, real estate sub-sectors and by major real estate investors. Drivers of these global real estate capital flow changes are also identified. The strategic real estate investment implications of this impact are highlighted, as well as the implications going forward concerning the global real estate strategies for the real estate portfolios held by institutional investors.Design/methodology/approachTo assess the impact of COVID-19, the Real Capital Analytics (RCA) database of global real estate transactions over 2019–2022 is used to drill-out critical details on commercial real estate transactions to explore specific trends in global real estate capital flows in this period of the COVID-19 crisis. This includes real estate capital flows to specific regions, countries, cities, real estate sub-sectors as well as the role of major real estate investors.FindingsThe impact of COVID-19 is clearly shown with the major decline in global real estate capital flows in 2020, with a strong recovery in 2021. Reduced levels of real estate capital flows in 2022 reflect different risk dynamics, where 2022 has seen investors move on from the COVID-19 environment. In 2022, the risk of COVID-19 for real estate has been replaced by global real estate risk factors such as inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, economic growth concerns, increased cost of debt issues and supply chain issues. This sees COVID-19 now rated as only the 6th most important risk factor in real estate investment decision-making for real estate investors in the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Asia–Pacific.Practical implicationsThis research has clearly shown the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on global real estate capital flows, as well as identifying the drivers of these real estate capital flow changes. It highlights that real estate investors have moved on and are now prioritising new risk factors ahead of COVID-19 risk. These critical risk factors reflect more recent financial, economic and geopolitical issues, which are key issues in real estate investment decision-making going forward. Investors need to structure these new risk factors into their real estate investment decision-making for the ongoing management of their domestic and international real estate portfolios.Originality/valueThis paper is the first published empirical research analysis of global real estate capital flows during the COVID-19 crisis. This research provides major insights on real estate investment decision-making during this crisis and the strategic changes seen in acquiring real estate portfolios in response to this major global crisis. The change in real estate risk priorities in 2022 as real estate investors move on from the COVID-19 environment is also identified and is clearly reflected in the 2022 global real estate capital flows.

Commercial real estate prices in Europe after COVID-19

“…Milcheva (2022) reports that the effect of COVID-19 is associated with steep declines in international real estate security returns and an increase in risk. Focusing on global real estate capital flows, Newell and Marzuki (2023) show that the industrial sector was the only sector that experienced an increase in activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

Commercial Real Estate Prices in Europe After COVID-19

“…Milcheva (2021) reports that the effect of COVID-19 is associated with steep declines in international real estate security returns and an increase in risk. Focusing on global real estate capital flows, Newell and Marzuki (2023) show that the industrial sector was the only sector that experienced an increase in activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.…”