The impact of temperature changes on summer time ozone and its precursors in the Eastern Mediterranean

İm, Ulaş; Markakis, K.; Poupkou, A.; Melas, Dimitrios; Ünal, Alper; Gerasopoulos, E.; Daskalakis, Nikos; Kındap, Tayfun; Kanakidou, Maria

doi:10.5194/acp-11-3847-2011

Cited by 94 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 58 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is well established that ozone and certain particulate matter species are sensitive to temperature changes (Fiore et al, 2012;Im et al, 2011Im et al, , 2012Jacob and Winner, 2009;Megaritis et al, 2014). Menut et al (2003) using an adjoint model studied the sensitivity of ozone concentrations at the afternoon peak to numerous model processes and inputs for a typical summer episode in Paris and found that temperature and wind speed were the most influential parameters to the observed changes.…”

Section: Description Of the Sensitivity Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Markakis

Valari

Perrussel³

et al. 2015

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. While previous research helped to identify and prioritize the sources of error in air-quality modeling due to anthropogenic emissions and spatial scale effects, our knowledge is limited on how these uncertainties affect climateforced air-quality assessments. Using as reference a 10-year model simulation over the greater Paris (France) area at 4 km resolution and anthropogenic emissions from a 1 km resolution bottom-up inventory, through several tests we estimate the sensitivity of modeled ozone and PM 2.5 concentrations to different potentially influential factors with a particular interest over the urban areas. These factors include the model horizontal and vertical resolution, the meteorological input from a climate model and its resolution, the use of a top-down emission inventory, the resolution of the emissions input and the post-processing coefficients used to derive the temporal, vertical and chemical split of emissions. We show that urban ozone displays moderate sensitivity to the resolution of emissions (∼ 8 %), the post-processing method (6.5 %) and the horizontal resolution of the air-quality model (∼ 5 %), while annual PM 2.5 levels are particularly sensitive to changes in their primary emissions (∼ 32 %) and the resolution of the emission inventory (∼ 24 %). The air-quality model horizontal and vertical resolution have little effect on model predictions for the specific study domain. In the case of modeled ozone concentrations, the implementation of refined input data results in a consistent decrease (from 2.5 up to 8.3 %), mainly due to inhibition of the titration rate by nitrogen oxides. Such consistency is not observed for PM 2.5 . In contrast this consistency is not observed for PM 2.5 . In addition we use the results of these sensitivities to explain and quantify the discrepancy between a coarse (∼ 50 km) and a fine (4 km) resolution simulation over the urban area. We show that the ozone bias of the coarse run (+9 ppb) is reduced by ∼ 40 % by adopting a higher resolution emission inventory, by 25 % by using a post-processing technique based on the local inventory (same improvement is obtained by increasing model horizontal resolution) and by 10 % by adopting the annual emission totals of the local inventory. The bias of PM 2.5 concentrations follows a more complex pattern, with the positive values associated with the coarse run (+3.6 µg m −3 ), increasing or decreasing depending on the type of the refinement. We conclude that in the case of fine particles, the coarse simulation cannot selectively incorporate local-scale features in order to reduce its error.

show abstract

Section: Description Of the Sensitivity Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Markakis

Valari

Perrussel³

et al. 2015

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The response to 20 % NMVOC emission reduction is less dominant and in terms of all metrics it leads to reduction of ozone. Im et al (2011b) tested the ozone response to 30 % reduced NO x or NMVOC emissions and found the ozone concentrations more sensitive to NO x emissions than to VOC emission. They also showed that above and around cities, reduced (increased) NO x emissions led to enhanced (suppressed) ozone by up to 8-10 % (in both direction), which is similar to the percentage change extracted from our simulations giving about 5-8 % ozone increase due to 20 % NO x emission reduction.…”

Section: The Urban Emissions Impact On Air Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with −20 % emission perturbation of NO x and/or non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC).The modeling system's air quality related outputs were evaluated using AirBase, and EMEP surface measurements showed reasonable reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O 3 ), but the annual cycle of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is more biased. In terms of hourly correlations, values achieved for ozone and NO 2 are 0.5-0.8 and 0.4-0.6, but SO 2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM 2.5 ) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols.European air quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NO x , SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NO x and SO 2 , and up to 60 % for PM 2.5 ), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to other sources from rural areas and minor cities. For the case of Prague (Czech Republic capital), it is further shown that the inter-urban interference between large cities does not play an important role which means that the impact on a chosen city of emissions from all other large cities is very small. At last, it is shown that to achieve significant ozone reduction over cities in central Europe, the emission control strategies have to focus on the reduction of NMVOC, as reducing NO x (due to suppressed titration) often leads to increased O 3 . The influence over rural areas is however always in favor of improved air quality, i.e. both NO x and/or NMVOC reduction ends up in decreased ozone pollution, mainly in terms of exceedances.

show abstract

“…Therefore the accuracy of any atmospheric model towards simulating the seasonal cycles of dominant trace gas species is affected by the accuracy of the temporal distribution and integrated fluxes of biogenic emission estimates that are included in large-scale models, especially during boreal summertime where biogenic activity in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is high. This seasonality is likely to become more important in a future climate, where simulations using a dynamic global vegetation model suggest biogenic emission fluxes will increase due to increases in surface temperatures , where isoprene emission fluxes have been found to scale almost linearly in response to temperature (Im et al, 2011). If such a scenario becomes reality, and assuming the mitigation and abatement of future anthropogenic emissions occurs according to recent predictions (Lamarque et al, 2010), then accounting for biogenic emissions and the accuracy of the estimates will have an enhanced impact towards assessing trends in atmospheric composition and future airquality Wiedinmyer et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…they use the temperature values in the meteorological data fields used to drive the model, along with the extent of illumination, to calculate the resident emission fluxes (e.g. Wang and Shallcross, 2000;Im et al, 2011). Given that climatic extremes are likely to increase in frequency in the coming decades this online approach has the potential to capture a more realistic variability in isoprene emissions, assuming the algorithms are able to perform well over a typical range in temperatures and soil moisture regimes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the uncertainty in simulating global tropospheric composition due to the variability in global emission estimates of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds

2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The emission of organic compounds from biogenic processes acts as an important source of trace gases in remote regions away from urban conurbations, and is likely to become more important in future decades due to the further mitigation of anthropogenic emissions that affect air quality and climate forcing. In this study we examine the contribution of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) towards global tropospheric composition using the global 3-D chemistry transport model TM5 and the recently developed modified CB05 chemical mechanism. By comparing regional BVOC emission estimates we show that biogenic processes act as dominant sources for many regions and exhibit a large variability in the annually and seasonally integrated emission fluxes. By performing sensitivity studies we find that the contribution of BVOC species containing between 1 to 3 carbon atoms has an impact on the resident mixing ratios of tropospheric O3 and CO, accounting for ~2.5% and ~10.8% of the simulated global distribution, respectively. This is approximately a third of the cumulative effect introduced by isoprene and the monoterpenes. By examining an ensemble of 3-D global chemistry transport simulations which adopt different global BVOC emission inventories we determine the associated uncertainty introduced towards simulating the composition of the troposphere for the year 2000. By comparing the model ensemble values against a composite of atmospheric measurements we show that the effects on tropospheric O3 are limited to the lower troposphere (with an uncertainty between −2% to 10%), whereas that for tropospheric CO extends up to the upper troposphere (with an uncertainty of between 10 to 45%). Comparing the mixing ratios for low molecular weight alkenes in TM5 against surface measurements taken in Europe implies that the cumulative emission estimates are too low, regardless of the chosen BVOC inventory. This variability in the global distribution of CO due to BVOC emissions introduces an associated uncertainty in the tropospheric CO burden of 11.4%, which impacts strongly on the oxidative capacity of the troposphere, introducing an uncertainty in the atmospheric lifetime of the greenhouse gas CH4 of ~3.3%. This study thus identifies the necessity of placing further constraints on non-CH4 global biogenic emission estimates in large-scale global atmospheric chemistry models.

show abstract

The impact of temperature changes on summer time ozone and its precursors in the Eastern Mediterranean

Cited by 94 publications

References 58 publications

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

Quantifying the uncertainty in simulating global tropospheric composition due to the variability in global emission estimates of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About