The impact of teenage pregnancy on school dropout in Brazil: a Bayesian network approach

Abstract

Background As reported by the World Health Organization, adolescent pregnancy is a major public health concern given its impact on the life of mothers and their family members. In this study we investigated possible cause-effect relations between teenage pregnancy and school dropout, and other attributes that gravitate around them, using the Bayesian network approach. Methods We used a database prepared by the Adolescent House Project and invited experts in the areas of Health, Education and Social Assistance to answer a survey containing questions aimed at detecting possible causal relationships. To perform the statistical analysis and the numerical simulations we employed the language and formalism of Bayesian networks. Results The analysis indicated a strong cause-effect relation between teenage pregnancy and school dropout, bolstered by economic vulnerability. We were able to identify the profile of the female teenager who drops out from school: white girls older than 15 years who got pregnant at least once, are not working to generate an income, and who belong to the group where the family income is less than or equal to US$780 per month. Also we detected the “maternal impact factor", i.e., the effect caused by whether or not the mothers of the teenagers have experienced teenage pregnancy. Conclusion There are many factors that lead teenagers to drop out of school; we confirmed not only the commonsense notion that pregnancy of the teenager is a major factor but found that a history of teenage pregnancy on the part of the mother is a major factor. Moreover, Bayesian networks emerged as an interesting mathematical framework to perform the statistical analysis.

Adolescent childbirth and mobility disability among women ages 15–49: an analysis of population health surveys from 14 low-income and middle-income countries

“…Adolescent childbirth is associated with lower educational attainment20 42 43 and lower lifetime earnings 43. Both are risk factors for mobility disability 44–46.…”

Intersections between adolescent fertility and obesity—pathways and research gaps focusing on Latin American populations

“…33 These can be particularly important when adolescent fertility is associated with economic vulnerability and in cultural contexts that discourage girls from returning to school after giving birth. 31 A systematic review of educational attainment and obesity across the globe indicates that in high-(e.g., the United States) and upper-middle income countries (e.g., Brazil), education is inversely associated with obesity, and the association is stronger for women than men. 34 Greater educational attainment may be associated with lower levels of obesity, because of higher health literacy and healthier behaviors, as well as a greater sense of control and empowerment.…”

“…Adolescent childbirth can cause youth to drop out of school, 31 earn less over their lifetimes, 32 and experience stress 33 . These can be particularly important when adolescent fertility is associated with economic vulnerability and in cultural contexts that discourage girls from returning to school after giving birth 31 .…”

“…Adolescent childbirth can cause youth to drop out of school, 31 earn less over their lifetimes, 32 and experience stress 33 . These can be particularly important when adolescent fertility is associated with economic vulnerability and in cultural contexts that discourage girls from returning to school after giving birth 31 . A systematic review of educational attainment and obesity across the globe indicates that in high‐ (e.g., the United States) and upper‐middle income countries (e.g., Brazil), education is inversely associated with obesity, and the association is stronger for women than men 34 .…”