The Impact of State Legislative Term Limits on the Competitiveness of Congressional Elections

Abstract

This study examines the impact of state legislative term limits on the candidacy decisions of challengers in U.S. House elections. Using data from 1996 to 2006, the authors show that the impact of term limits is mitigated by local political factors, such as an incumbent’s election margin. The larger the incumbent’s previous electoral margin, the lower the likelihood of facing a quality challenger. The authors also identify an unanticipated consequence of term limits: In incumbent races, term limits can generate a substitution effect; as termed out state legislators enter elections, other quality challengers from the same party stay out of the race, as they are unwilling to face a primary in addition to a general election fight. As a result, the increased number of termed out state legislators who seek Congressional office are offset by the reduced number of other quality challengers from nonlegislative offices, resulting in minimally more competitive Congressional elections.

Electoral Career Movements and the Flow of Political Power in the American Federal System

“…One possible complication might involve the employment of rotation in some states and districts in the nineteenth century, an informal term limit mechanism that likely truncated an unknown number of congressional careers in ways that could be relevant to this analysis (e.g., Kernell 1977). Along somewhat similar lines, in more recent years, it is possible that the introduction of legislative term limits changed the career calculations of politicians in some states that might, at the margins, influence the relationships found here (e.g., Birkhead, Uriarte, and Bianco 2010;Lazarus 2006;Powell 2000;Steen 2006).…”