The Impact of State Firearm Laws on Homicide Rates in Suburban and Rural Areas Compared to Large Cities in the United States, 1991‐2016

Abstract

Purpose This article aims to examine whether state firearm laws impact homicide rates differently in suburban and rural areas compared to large cities in the United States. Methods We analyzed serial, cross‐sectional data for the 26‐year period 1991‐2016 using a panel design. We examined the relationship between 6 specific state firearm laws and homicide rates in large cities (those with greater than 100,000 people in 1990) and in all geographic areas outside of these cities. Using a city‐level fixed effects negative binomial regression, we modeled the number of homicides as a function of state firearm laws, while controlling for time fixed effects and time‐varying state‐ and city‐level sociodemographic factors. Findings Two policies—universal background checks and “may issue” laws that required a heightened showing of suitability for concealed carry—were associated with lower firearm homicide rates in large cities but were not associated with firearm homicide rates in suburban and rural areas. In contrast, laws that prohibited gun possession by people convicted of a violent misdemeanor were associated with lower firearm homicide rates in suburban and rural areas, but were not associated with firearm homicide rates in large cities. Permit requirements were associated with lower firearm homicide rates in both large cities and suburban and rural areas. Conclusions This article provides the first evidence that state firearm laws may have a differential impact on firearm homicide rates in suburban and rural areas compared to urban areas in the United States.

Assault mortality in United States women of childbearing age

“…Several hypotheses have been offered, including structural disadvantages facing minorities [10], the emerging opioid epidemic [11], the increasing lethality of violence [12], and state laws relating to gun permits [13]. Structural disadvantages associated with homicide have been defined by household income, percentages of youthful populations, families in poverty, individuals receiving public assistance, unemployed residents, single parent households, divorced residents, rented households, residents with a tenure below five years, and those without a high school diploma [10].…”

“…The third wave began in 2013, one year before the observed turning point in these data for the US South and was particularly related to illicitly manufactured fentanyl [11]. The increasing lethality of violent incidents may also have played a role [12], and finally, in view of the predominant role of firearms in the current epidemic, state laws prohibiting gun possession by people with violent misdemeanour convictions are associated with lower firearm homicide rates in suburban and rural areas, but not large cities, and those mandating permit requirements have been associated with lower homicide rates in both large cities and suburban and rural areas [13].…”

Firearm laws and the network of firearm movement among US states

“…We used the following state-level data to adjust for characteristics previously associated with firearm-related violence: poverty rate [21][22][23], a validated proxy measure for state-level firearm ownership [24], and countyweighted state density as a proxy for the average urbanicity of the state (the sum across all counties in the state of [county population / county land area] * [county population / state population]) [21,23,25]. The proxy measure of state-level firearm ownership developed by Siegel and colleagues [24] uses the proportion of firearm suicides in a state and per capita number of hunting licenses [26], and is highly correlated with surveymeasured, household firearm ownership at 0.95.…”

Gun Homicide Research: What We Know and Where We Need to Go

“…Conversely to policies that reduce or restrict access to guns for dangerous individuals, on the aggregate, policies that increase gun access or ownership among adults have been associated with increases in gun homicide (for example, see Siegel et al, 2020). Recent research evidence suggests permissive concealed carry laws increase homicide rates (Crifasi et al, 2018; Donohue et al, 2019).…”