The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China

Abstract

Declining fertility rates pose challenges to global economic, social, cultural and political development. Low fertility rates among rural floating populations are exacerbating these challenges. However, it is not clear whether and to what extent rural population mobility (RPM) has reduced migrants’ willingness to have children. At the same time, rural migration may represent a self-selection behavior (i.e., selection bias), and traditional measurement methods may be insufficient for effectively estimating the quantitative impacts of rural migration. Accordingly, the data from 1734 rural households from 28 provinces in mainland China were collected in the current study, and endogenous switching regression (ESR) models were used to correct the selection bias to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of RPM on fertility intention. The results revealed the following: (1) For rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 19.820%, their willingness to have female children would increase by 48.526%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 26.711%. (2) For rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 55.982%, their willingness to have female children would drop by 18.294%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 55.106%. (3) For eastern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would decrease by 40.273%. For midwestern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 24.786%. (4) For eastern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 11.032%. (5) For midwestern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 71.744%. The abovementioned findings can provide research support for other low-fertility countries or regions toward increasing fertility rates and addressing any imbalances in current gender ratios. They can also help to provide realistic strategies for alleviating the global population crisis.

The Impact of Health Insurance Policy on the Fertility Intention of Rural Floating Population in China: Empirical Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data

“…He argued that home ownership causes residents to delay the time to form a family and choose to have children, thus inhibiting the desire to have children. Different from foreign cultures, Chinese culture emphasizes "Only have a house for happy work and life" [60]. For migrants who have left their original places of residence, owning housing property rights means higher social integration and identity, which can improve their life satisfaction and fertility intention [61].…”

Fertility Intention and Influencing Factors for Having a Second Child among Floating Women of Childbearing Age

“…Based on this fact, the Chinese government has successively issued the “universal second child” policy and the three-child policy [ 28 ] (that is, a couple can have three children and enjoy supporting measures) to address the serious challenges of population aging. However, factors such as high housing prices, high child-rearing costs and imperfect maternity services inhibit the fertility willingness of people of childbearing age, especially those in low-income groups [ 4 ]. The declining fertility rates over the past decade present the possibility that current childbearing cohorts will have fewer children than their predecessors [ 29 ].…”

“…In China, according to the data from the Seventh National Census, the total fertility rate reached a low of 1.3 in 2020, already below the warning line of 1.5 [ 3 , 4 ], which is closely related to the previous population policy. In the late 1970s, in order to relieve the population pressure and eradicate severe poverty, the one-child policy was implemented in China [ 5 ].…”