The Impact of Risk Factors Reduction Scenarios on Hospital Admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years and the Hospitalisation Cost of Cardiovascular Disease in Thailand

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered to be one of the leading health issues in Thailand. CVD not only contributes to an increase in the number of hospital admissions year by year but also impacts on the rising health care expenditure for the treatment and long-term care of CVD patients. Therefore, this study is aimed at examining the impacts of risk reduction strategies on the number of CVD hospital admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and the costs of hospitalisation. To estimate such impacts a CVD cost-offset model was applied using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The number of the midyear population was classified by age, gender and the CVD risk factor profiles from the recent Thai National Health Examination Survey (NHES) IV. This survey was chosen as the baseline population. The CVD risk factor profiles included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking status. The Asia-Pacific Collaborative Cohort Study (APCCS) equation was applied to predict the probability of developing CVD over the next eight-year period. Estimates on the following were obtained from the model: 1) the CVD events both fatal and non-fatal; 2) the difference between the projected number of deaths and the actual number of deaths in that population; 3) the number of patients who are expected to live with CVD; 4) the DALYs from the estimated number of fatal and non-fatal events; 5) the cost of hospital admissions. Four CVD risk strategy scenarios were investigated as follows: 1) the do-nothing scenario; 2) the optimistic scenario; 3) achieve the UN millennium development goal; and 4