The Impact of Presidential Coattails on Outcomes of Congressional Elections

Abstract

Presidential coattails are frequently addressed in American politics, but we know little about their impact on the outcomes in elections for the House. Yet it is here that they are most significant. If presidential coattails do affect congressional elections, they can be the cause of increased support for the president (from new representatives of his party) and increased support for policy change (from representatives of a new generation). This research examines the relationship between how well a president runs in a congressional district and the success of the congressional candidate of his party in winning the district. The analysis is done for each of the six presidential elections from 1952 through 1972, and is done separately for the North and South as well as for the country as a whole. In every instance, constituency party strength is controlled in order to isolate the impact of the presidential candidate on the congressional outcome. The basic conclusions are that presidential coattails have had a declining impact on the outcomes in congressional elections since 1952 and that in recent elections their impact has declined to the vanishing point. This, it is argued, is primarily due to the increasing lack of competitiveness of congressional districts.Presidential coattails are part of the lore of American electoral behavior. Politicians project them, journalists attribute them, historians recount them, and political scientists analyze them. Yet their extent and consequences remain elusive. This research attempts to cast light on these questions. PREVIOUS COATTAIL STUDIESThere have been two basic types of studies of presidential coattails. The first type has relied upon aggregate voting data and has compared the results in congressional districts for presidential and congressional candidates of the same party to discover the extent to which one ran ahead of the other (Press, 1958); whether both won, lost, or split the district (Cummings,

Voting in Four Elective Offices

“…Some may consciously attempt to influence the partisan composition of the Congress-an institution that the president must deal with-by voting for congressional candidates of the same party as their presidential favorite. As observed by some, presidential coattails have become less important in recent years like 1972 and 1976, though they have not completely disappeared in effect (Edwards, 1979). One should be cautious about drawing the generalization that this is a fundamental change in voting behavior, since it may largely The Importance of Presidential Coattails for Candidate Information Subgroups NOTE.…”

“…Many assume that less voter awareness of House candidates results in more frequent coattail voting in House compared to Senate or gubernatorial elections (Campbell and Miller, 1957;Cummings, 1966;Hinckley, 1967;Jacobson, 1976). Some argue that coattail voting has become less frequent in recent years, perhaps even disappearing (Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1976;Edwards, 1979). Hinckley (1970) offers an alternative perspective.…”

The presidential pulse of congressional elections

“…Presidential frustration in dealing with Congress after midterm elections has been repeatedly observed in studies of relations between presidents and Congress (Edwards 1989;Bond and Fleisher 1990;Peterson 1990;and Mayhew 1991a). Despite many differences among these studies-differences in time periods examined and in the conceptualization and measurement of the relationship between the president and Congress-each produces evidence that congressional support for and cooperation with the president weakens after the midterm election.…”

“…Elsewhere, I have estimated that surge and decline effects are anywhere from three-quarters to one-half their pre-1970s strength (Campbell1991, 1992. Walter Burnham (1975), George Edwards (1980), and John Ferejohn andRandall Calvert (1984, andCalvert andFerejohn 1983) have also concluded that presidential-coattail effects have weakened. Additionally, Morris Fiorina's individual-level analysis (1990, 125) finds the presidential surge to have declined to roughly one-half of its prior potency.…”

Gubernatorial Coattail Effects in State Legislative Elections

“…Findings from this body of research indicate that presidential coattails do exert an influence (Born 1984;Campbell,1986a;Campbell and Sumners 1990;Flemming 1995;Jacobson 1976Jacobson , 1997Mondak 1993), although the magnitude of their effect has diminished over time (Calvert and Ferejohn 1983;Edwards 1979;Ferejohn and Calvert 1984), and their degree of influence varies depending on candidacy status (Flemming 1995;Mondak 1993) and voter attitudes (Mondak 1990; Mondak and McCurley 1994). While coattails clearly play a role in affecting elections, the strength of their influence is seldom enough to matter for who wins or loses (Campbell and Sumners 1990;Edwards,1979).…”