The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

Mou, Xindi; Li, Xiuting; Dong, Jun

doi:10.1007/s11424-020-9114-z

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The change in market expectations and the slowdown of the urbanization process led the real estate market to slower but more stable growth after 2015 [13]. Older societies lower housing demand [14]. The lower transparency of real estate market information and high government intervention become problematic once its growth slows down [15].…”

Section: Previous Discussion and Research Gapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Developers’ Heterogeneous Decision-Making under Negative Shock after the High-Growth Era: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Economy

Sheng,

Cheng,

Yin

2024

Mathematics

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This research uses difference-in-difference (DID) and other empirical methods to analyze firm-level real estate data to discover how heterogeneous firm characteristics affect managers’ decision-making about development expansion when a firm faces a temporary negative sales shock in the Chinese housing market. The manager’s decision is a utility maximization problem under uncertainty, determined by their risk aversion levels, which managers choose to optimize by considering other factors of interest, including career risk and personal wealth. Also, the advance payment rule encourages real estate developers to maintain high turnover, since new projects allow developers to collect cash first. The results show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are much more conservative than other types of developers. SOEs tend to focus on current developing projects. Firms with more concentrated management pursue expansion and seek to use new project sales to compensate for their slower growth. Larger developers with headquarters in large cities tend to slow their development speed when they observe negative signals, as they can quickly engage in new projects given these firms’ easy access to financial resources such as bank loans. This study makes a novel contribution to the literature since previous research has tended to focus on the macro market level rather than the firm level. The findings also have strong policy and regulation value. The results indicate that higher cashflow monitoring needs, especially to monitor family-owned developers, to prevent misuse and excessive project expansion.

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Section: Previous Discussion and Research Gapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Developers’ Heterogeneous Decision-Making under Negative Shock after the High-Growth Era: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Economy

Sheng,

Cheng,

Yin

2024

Mathematics

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“…It is mainly based on feedback theory, through the combination of qualitative and quantitative, systematic comprehensive reasoning, and computer simulation technology is mainly used to study the relationship between the structure, function and dynamic behavior of complex systems [29,30]. It has been widely used in the construction industry for housing demand [31], construction waste treatment [32], green housing market [33], green building cost benefit estimation [34], building energy consumption forecasting [35] and other fields.…”

Section: System Dynamics Model Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics-Based Simulation Analysis of the Policy of the Prefabricated Building Industry Chain

2024

Teh. vjesn.

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With the development of my country's industrial level, the prefabricated building (PB) model has gradually become the mainstream. In order to more scientifically study the development policy of the prefabricated building industry, a system dynamics model with the boundary of resource input, technology research and development, production capacity and market demand system is constructed from the perspective of industry chain development, based on the influence of external subjects of the industry chain on the development of the industry chain. Afterwards, dynamic simulations of the development trend of prefabricated buildings under different policy scenarios are carried out. The results show that the increase in capital investment in the industrial chain and the improvement of the prefabricated assembly rate of government-invested construction projects are strong short-term incentive policies, while corporate tax incentives and prefabricated building purchase loan incentives are long-term incentive policies. Combined with the simulation results, the policy formulation recommendations based on the development trend of the industry chain are put forward.

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Aged Care Projects Evaluation Research Based on the Self-Adaptive Consensus Emergence Model Driven by the Social Learning Mechanism

Tao,

Jiang,

Wang

et al. 2024

Expert Systems with Applications

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The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

Cited by 5 publications

References 27 publications

Housing Developers’ Heterogeneous Decision-Making under Negative Shock after the High-Growth Era: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Economy

Housing Developers’ Heterogeneous Decision-Making under Negative Shock after the High-Growth Era: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Economy

System Dynamics-Based Simulation Analysis of the Policy of the Prefabricated Building Industry Chain

Aged Care Projects Evaluation Research Based on the Self-Adaptive Consensus Emergence Model Driven by the Social Learning Mechanism

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