The Impact of Population Ageing on Rural Aged Care Needs in Australia: Identifying Projected Gaps in Service Provision by 2032

Abstract

This observational study examines and estimates the trends and impact of population ageing on rural aged care needs in Australia. With its universal health system and subsidised aged care system, Australia is among those countries with a long life expectancy. Being a geographically large country with a relatively small and dispersed population presents challenges for equitable access to aged care service provision. While this is widely acknowledged, there is little empirical evidence to demonstrate the magnitude and location of the aged care service provision gaps in the next decade. We performed time series analyses on administrative data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare GEN databases. The Aged Care Planning Regions (ACPR) were classified according to geographical remoteness using the Modified Monash Model scale. There is currently a shortfall of 2000+ places in residential aged care in rural and remote areas of Australia based on 2021 data. By 2032, population ageing will mean that an additional 3390 residential care places and around 3000 home care packages will be required in rural and remote communities alone. Geographical disparities in aged care exist in Australia and continue to worsen, requiring immediate action.

Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think

“…A shrinking working-age population will have implications for the labor force in both export sectors as well as the care sector, where demand will increase due to an aging population (Browne and Braun 2008). The structural shift to an older-age population will have important implications for the financing of social welfare and pension systems, as well (Blackberry and Morris 2023;McCann 2017).…”

How is complexity measured and detected among community dwelling older people aged 65 years and over? A scoping review

“…Accessing resources and supports is important in supporting older people. Where and how a person lives can impact the resources available (Blackberry & Morris, 2023;Winterton & Bramble, 2021). This can affect the options the older person has access to, especially if travelling is not an option (Blackberry et al, 2021).…”