The impact of political liberalisation and democratisation on ethnic conflict in Africa: an empirical test of common assumptions

Abstract

This article provides an empirical test of a set of common theoretical assumptions concerning the relationship between political liberalisation, democratisation and ethnic conflict in Africa. The theory in question posits that liberalisation will result in short-term increases in ethnic conflict and that democratisation will be followed by a decrease in ethnic conflict. The article employs a cross-national and time sensitive data set to test this hypothesis in the context of contemporary sub-Saharan Africa. A compelling benefit of this methodology is that it allows for an explanation of variation in ethnic conflict both across states and over time.The results indicate that the relationship between political liberalisation and ethnic conflict is the reverse of what the common assumptions would predict. Liberalisation has had an inverse relationship to ethnic conflict in sub-Saharan Africa between 1988 and 1997. Democratisation does not have the hypothesised effect even when lagged variables are employed. Structural variables as represented by GDP per capita and infant mortality rates are also systematically related to ethnic conflict. The author concludes that policy makers and analysts should continue to pursue both liberalisation and democratisation but should not neglect the central role of an adequate resource base in reducing ethnic conflict in Africa. Political liberalisation and democratic institutions, while providing some measure of relief, are by no means silver bullets for the difficult challenges posed by ethnic conflict in Africa.

Indigenousness in Africa

“…120 See Blanton et al 2001, pp. 121 For some of the theories on causes of ethnic conflict in post-colonial Africa, see Smith 2000 andHughes 2004. 121 For some of the theories on causes of ethnic conflict in post-colonial Africa, see Smith 2000 andHughes 2004.…”

Votes, money and violence: political parties and elections in sub-Saharan Africa

“…Colonial powers used the tribal organization of traditional societies as an excuse to delay the granting of independence, authoritarian African leaders after independence equated multi-party politics with ethnic conflict in a defence of military regimes and one-party states, and when the third wave of democratization reached Africa in the early 1990s, many expressed concern that democratization on the continent would politicize ethnic divisions and result in ethnic violence (ContehMorgan 1997). whereas there is evidence that ethnic conflict, especially rebellion, hampers democratization (Scarritt et al 2001), there is no simple causal connection between ethnic diversity and political instability (Barrows 1976) or between liberalisation/democratization and ethnic conflict in Africa (Smith 2000). Attempts to directly relate social diversity to degree of democracy (Fish and Brooks 2004) ignore the crucial intermediating role of institutions, including the electoral system (De Nevers 1993; Sisk and Reynolds 1998;Saideman et al 2002).…”

Political Liberalization or Armed Conflicts? Political Changes in Post–cold War Africa

“…4 4 For studies that emphasize the need to analyze the relationship between the process of political liberalization and armed conflicts, or the need to analyze the two phenomena more comprehensively, see, for example, Smith (2000), Conteh‐Morgan (1997), and Joseph (1999). …”

“…12 12 Smith (2000), who quantitatively examines the relationship between the eruption of ethnic conflicts and political liberalization, asserts that the expansion of civil liberties on balance has the effect of reducing the occurrence of ethnic conflicts. …”

“…3 Representative studies of that period include Bratton and van de Walle (1997) and Furley (1995). 4 For studies that emphasize the need to analyze the relationship between the process of political liberalization and armed conflicts, or the need to analyze the two phenomena more comprehensively, see, for example, Smith (2000), Conteh-Morgan (1997), and Joseph (1999). 5 The assertion that political liberalization in Africa cannot be regarded as a transition to idealistic democracy had already been made, for example, by Bratton and van de Walle (1997, chap.…”