The impact of perceived experience on likelihood judgments for self and others: an experimental approach

Abstract

This study examines the effect of an experimental manipulation of perceived experience on self and others' likelihood ratings for a set of relatively commonplace misfortunes. Participants were randomly assigned to a condition in which they were asked whether they had ever experienced the events (designed to induce higher perceived experience) or whether they had done so frequently, typically, etc. (designed to induce lower perceived experience). The manipulation led to increases in ratings of both perceived self-likelihood and others' likelihood, in ease of imagining the outcome and recall of a past occurrence, and to decreases in perceived control over the events in the higher perceived experience condition. The increases in ease of imagining mediated the impact of manipulated experience on comparative likelihood whereas the decreases in perceived control did not. There was little evidence that event controllability moderated the impact of experience on comparative likelihood for these events.

Dispositional Optimism, Affective States and Judgements of Future Life Events

“…It was suggested that when a negative mood is induced, other negative thoughts are activated and the judgements about the future are biased in a mood-congruent direction (Bower, 1981). Contrary, other studies revealed that the adults, after imagining themselves in different negative scenarios, showed a decrease in judgements of future negative events for both themselves and others, compared to the control condition (e.g., Harris, 2007;Rafaely et al, 2011) or compared to neutral or positive conditions (e.g., Chou, Lee, & Ho, 2007;Fedorikhin & Cole, 2004). To explain these findings it was suggested that negative moods may prompt more positive self-relevant thoughts and, consequently, mood incongruent response patterns may occur.…”

“…Studies investigated the impact of experimentally induced negative affective states compared to a control condition on judgements of future events and used the imagination technique for various negative events (e.g., drinking problems, malfunction of the nervous system or agerelated diseases; Harris, 2007;Rafaely et al, 2011;Sparks et al, 2003). Mixed findings were reported on adult samples.…”

“…To advance the literature, the second goal of this study addressed the effect of negative affective states on the judgements of future positive and negative events in a sample of adolescents. To manipulate the adolescents' affective state we used a commonplace and easy-to-imagine negative event (similar with Chambers, Windschitl, & Suls, 2003;Harris, 2007). Specifically, in this study a scenario related to a negative interrelationship situation was incorporated.…”

“…Adolescents have the tendency to underestimate the probability of occurrence of different negative events (e.g., automobile accidents, school aggression, divorce, and healthrelated problems; e.g., Arnett, 2000;Chapin & Coleman, 2012). Understanding the factors related to judgements of future evens represents an important step in making adolescents recognize their personal risk and take self-protective measures (Harris, 2007;Sparks, Harris, & Raats, Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Loredana R. Diaconu-Gherasim, Department of Psychology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University,3 Toma Cozma,Iasi Romania 700554,Email: gloreda@uaic.ro 2003; Weinstein & Klein, 1996). In order to advance the literature, the first goal of this study was to explore the relationship between dispositional optimism and judgements about the likelihood of experiencing positive and negative life events on a sample of adolescents.…”

Self-enhancement and self-protection: What they are and what they do

“…Biased memories are an even more potent source of non-motivational self-enhancement and self-protection. When people work on collaborative tasks, for example, their own inputs are naturally more salient (Harris, 2007). Thus, it is important to distinguish between self-enhancement and self-protection as processes that are motivated by the desire to promote or protect a selfimage, and between self-enhancement and self-protection that are achieved as offshoots of non-motivated processes (Gramzow & Willard, 2006).…”