The impact of municipal-territorial transformations in the regions of Russia on population dynamics

Abstract

The demographic problem is one of the most acute in modern Russia, especially at the level of municipalities, most of which have experienced depopulation since 2010, when the country's population as a whole was increasing. Numerous actions are being taken to solve the demographic problem, and further expansion of their list is quite justified, since in the future the situation may become even worse. At the same time, the issue of the impact on the demographic situation of the municipal-territorial transformations carried out in the regions of the country, which are mainly aimed at abolishing or reducing the number of second-level municipalities — urban and rural settlements, has not been investigated. Meanwhile, public service institutions in the fields of education, healthcare and others may disappear, that negatively affects the living conditions of the population and does not contribute to solving demographic problems. Other consequences of municipal-territorial transformations also have not been studied. This article shows that the municipalities of the first level (urban districts, municipal areas, municipal districts), which in the period 2010-2020 were covered by transformations, are characterized by poorer demographic dynamics (less increase or more decrease in population) compared to other municipalities in the same subjects of the Russian Federation, which were not covered by such transformations. Municipalities with and without transformations also differ in terms of natural and migration movement of the population. It can be concluded that municipal-territorial transformations aimed at simplifying the municipal structure in the country may solve some momentary difficulties, in particular, reduce budget expenditures. But in the future, they may have negative consequences for solving Russia's main problems, including preserving and increasing the country's population.