The Impact of Migration on Long‐Term European Population Trends, 1850 to Present

Murphy, Michael J.

doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00132.x

Cited by 33 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(15 reference statements)

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“…Thus, for example, infant mortality levels 80 years ago will directly affect the current number of 80‐year‐olds, but those levels are also likely to affect the number of births to this group as parents when they were aged 20–40—about 40–60 years ago—and therefore indirectly to affect the size of later birth cohorts. The same point holds for migration since it is of the same form as mortality in equation (Murphy )…”

Section: Methods Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 83%

Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850

Murphy¹

2017

Population & Development Rev

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Section: Methods Data and Modelsmentioning

confidence: 83%

Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850

Murphy¹

2017

Population & Development Rev

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“…Depopulation is thus being driven by a “new” and increasingly intractable set of dynamics: negative natural increase combining with the old form of population decline—net migration loss (Bucher & Mai, ). The situation has been convincingly illustrated for the counties of the United States and Europe (Johnson, Field, & Poston, ; Murphy, ).…”

Section: The Drivers Of Population Change Are Changingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand

Brabyn

Jackson

2019

N Z Geog

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In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment-or lack thereof-can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than "just" migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size.Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter "urban places") in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice-versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land-use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not

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“…Although the correlations are relatively weak, they are consistently negative and indicate that the higher the net migration, the lower the natural increase, and viceversa -a finding also reported for the USA and Europe (Johnson et al, 2015;Murphy 2016). Migration may thus not be the 'bringer of babies' that many believe.…”

Section: The Mechanisms Of Subnational Population Growth and Decline mentioning

confidence: 74%

The mechanisms of subnational population growth and decline in New Zealand 1976-2013

Jackson¹,

Brabyn²

2017

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The Impact of Migration on Long‐Term European Population Trends, 1850 to Present

Cited by 33 publications

References 19 publications

Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850

Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand

The mechanisms of subnational population growth and decline in New Zealand 1976-2013

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