The impact of meteorological persistence on the distribution and extremes of ozone

Sun, Wendell Q.; Hess, Peter; Liu, Chengji

doi:10.1002/2016gl071731

Cited by 50 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Differences between simulations are also examined in terms of the impact they have on days with extreme temperatures and O 3 concentrations. Similar to recent studies (e.g., Kerr & Waugh, 2018;Schnell & Prather, 2017;Sun et al, 2017), we define extremes in terms of exceedances above percentile thresholds. We adopt the 10th and 90th percentiles (P 10 and P 90 , respectively) as the thresholds for extreme O 3 and temperature events on both sides of the distributions, and we calculate the average O 3 concentration on days falling above (below) P 90 (P 10 ).…”

Section: Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

et al. 2019

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Summertime surface‐level ozone (O3) is known to vary with temperature, but the relative roles of different processes responsible for causing the O3‐temperature relationship are not well quantified. In this study we use simulations of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model to isolate and assess the relative impact of atmospheric transport, chemistry, and emissions on large‐scale O3 variability, events, and and the covariance of O3 with temperature. Using observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network in the contiguous United States, we show that the Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of O3 and its relationship with temperature during the summer. We use the change in O3 given a change in temperature (dO3/dT) along with other metrics to understand differences between our simulations. In regions with moderate to strong positive correlations between temperature and O3 such as the northeast, Great Lakes, and Great Plains, temperature's association with transport yields a majority of the total O3‐temperature relationship (∼60%), while temperature‐dependent chemistry and anthropogenic NO emissions play smaller roles (∼30% and ∼10%, respectively). There are regions, however, with insignificant correlations between temperature and O3, and our findings suggest that transport is still an important driver of O3 variability in these regions, albeit not correlated with temperature. Transport is not directly dependent on temperature but rather is linked through an indirect association, and it is therefore important to understand the exact mechanisms that link transport to O3 and how these mechanisms will change in a warming world.

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Section: Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

et al. 2019

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“…These two pollutants have been regulated to limit impairment to human respiratory systems, health, and the environment. (Sun et al, ; H. Zhang et al, ). The compound effect of high ozone concentration during heat waves is greater than the sum of the individual impacts (Schnell & Prather, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Localized Changes in Heat Wave Properties Across the United States

2019

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Heat waves are an important type of extreme climate event and directly result in more than 130 deaths per year across the United States. Heat waves have been described by several attributes and combinations which constitute various event typologies. Attributes of heat waves from 10 cities are analyzed over the period 1950–2016 to understand how these attributes determine variability in local heat waves and how climate change affects heat waves across the United States. This study uses eight definitions to differentiate heat waves and tests for temporal trends in key properties of heat waves over the period 1950–2016. At least five harmful attributes of heat waves have increased simultaneously for Dallas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, and Portland.Miami showed the greatest change in heat wave season length, frequency, and timing over the study period. Surprisingly, the greatest mean heat wave intensities above daily thresholds were for Bismarck, ND (+8.2 °C) and Syracuse, NY (+6.5 °C). Similar results across Baltimore, MD, Colorado Springs, CO, Dallas, TX, Des Moines, IA, Miami, FL, New York, NY, Phoenix, AZ, and Portland, OR, are presented to clarify the many quantitative differences in heat wave attributes and variance in quantification approaches across climates. This work explores the nexus of quantitative description and social construction of heat waves through the lens of the various regional metrics to describe heat waves. Ultimately, this assessment will guide the development of various strategies to help communities understand and prepare for heat resilience based on local heat wave components.

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“…The overall correlation between these quantities is 0.3, significant, but weak. There have been varying predictions for whether future ozone increases in the extreme (e.g., Sun et al (2017)). Figure 4a suggests that in only a few locations in a future climate does the 90th percentile ozone concentration increase by at least 10% over the increase in the median.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have used different methodologies to capture the extremal 20 dependence between ozone and temperature. Sun et al (2017), calculated the conditional probability of a high ozone day (ozone above the 90th percentile) given a high temperature day (temperature above the 90th percentile). They found probabilities that ranged from approximately 50% in the northeastern U.S. to somewhat less than 20% in the western U.S. Schnell and Prather (2017) and Zhang et al (2017), calculated the joint probability that ozone and temperature are high (above the 95th percentile) compared to the probability that either one of them is high.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Extremal Dependence between Temperature and Ozone over the Continental U.S.

Phalitnonkiat¹,

Sun²,

Grigoriu³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasizes the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. Through the use of extreme value theory and other statistical methods ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence are analyzed over the United States during the summer months (JJA) using Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) measurement data and simulations of the present and future climate and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem. Three simulations using

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The impact of meteorological persistence on the distribution and extremes of ozone

Cited by 50 publications

References 31 publications

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

Localized Changes in Heat Wave Properties Across the United States

Extremal Dependence between Temperature and Ozone over the Continental U.S.

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