To cite this article: Maurice Danard (1986) On the sensitivity of predictions of maritime cyclogenesis to convective precipitation and sea temperature, Atmosphere-Ocean, 24:1, 52-72, DOI: 10.1080DOI: 10. /07055900.1986
Convective Precipitation, SST and Predictions of Maritime Cyclogenesis / 53 1 IntroductionExtratropical cyclones over the oceans tend to develop faster, attain greater intensities, and be less accurately predicted than those over land. While it is unlikely that many forecasters responsible for maritime or coastal areas would dispute this statement, some references to support it may be found in Danard (1983Danard ( , 1985. Contributing factors are a smooth underlying surface, an abundant supply of heat and moisture, and sparsity of data. This paper is concerned with the effects of surface fluxes and convective precipitation. The importance of convective precipitation in the development of extratropical cyclones was noted by Tracton (1973). More recently, Smith et al. (1984) examined a winter cyclone over the United States and concluded that the bulk of the precipitation was convective rather than large-scale. In Section 2, a convective parametrization adapted from Kuo (1974) is included in an 8-level primitive equations model. Three methods are investigated of specifying the fraction of the moisture supply producing convective precipitation. These are tested for two 36-h periods of cyclogenesis over the northeastern Pacific Ocean as described in Sections 3 and 4.It is generally accepted that the CISK mechanism (conditional instability of the second kind) is important in the formation of tropical cyclones (Charney and Eliassen, 1964). In CISK, moisture convergence in the PBL and evaporation from the surface lead to condensation and liberation of latent heat, which drives the storm. If a depression moves over warmer water, the moisture supply will increase and the cyclone will intensify. The role of CISK in extratropical systems is not so clear, and this is examined in Section 5.