The Impact of Infective Immigrants and Self Isolation on the Dynamics and Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Ayana, Molalegn; Hailegiorgis, Tsige; Getnet, Kassahun

doi:10.11648/j.pamj.20200906.12

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Kami menganalisa titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit dan titik ekuilibrium non-trivial serta kestabilannya, bilangan reproduksi dasar dan juga analisa sensitivitas. Selain MERS-CoV, makalah [8] disitasi oleh banyak model penyakit lainnya, seperti COVID-19 pada [9][10][11][12][13][14] dan Chikungunya [15].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Bifurkasi Pada Model Penyebaran Penyakit MERS-CoV di Dua Wilayah dengan Populasi Konstan

Owen

2022

Jambura J. Math

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Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is caused by a novel coronavirus and it can be a human-to-human transmission disease. World Health Organization (WHO) reported the disease outbreak first happened in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and the last case is reported in 2019. In 2018, MERS-CoV outbreaks were reported in the Republic of Korea, United Kingdom of Great Britain, Northern Ireland, Saudi Arabia, Uni Arab Emirates, Oman, and Malaysia. Cases that are identified outside the Middle East are usually caused by traveling people who were infected in the Middle East and then traveled back to their country. The previous research had constructed a mathematical model for the transmission of MERS-CoV in two areas by separating the human population into susceptible and infectious groups. It focused on the basic reproductive number and sensitivity analysis. In this paper, we simplify the model with the assumption that the total population of each area is constant. Using Lagrange Multiplier Method, we find some co-dimension one and co-dimension two bifurcations i.e.fold bifurcation and cusp bifurcation, respectively. We get the domain of parameters where three, two and one non-trivial equilibrium point occurs. We also find a transcritical bifurcation point such that the disease-free equilibrium point is stable on some parameter domains.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Bifurkasi Pada Model Penyebaran Penyakit MERS-CoV di Dua Wilayah dengan Populasi Konstan

Owen

2022

Jambura J. Math

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“…Many dynamical models have been developed and analyzed to identify most important parameters that helps to forecast the trends of infectious disease and its control mechanisms [10] . With aim different mathematical models were formulated and analyzed to investigate the pandemic of COVID-19 in [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , and references cited therein. Similarly, many TB dynamical models are also studied to proposed its mitigation strategies [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical modeling and analysis for the co-infection of COVID-19 and tuberculosis

Mekonen

Obsu²

2022

Heliyon

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“…Mathematical epidemiological models have been extensively used to predict and understand the dynamics of the Covid-19 transmission [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] . Among various epidemiological models, Kermack-Mckendrick [21] , [22] type models are the most popular.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the many Covid-19 prediction models [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [20] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , some [12] , [14] , [15] , [17] , [18] , [27] , [28] , [29] have focused on controlling and mitigating the spreading of the coronavirus. Non-pharmaceutical interventions include the lockdown [12] , [14] , [15] , mask usage [16] , [17] , [18] , physical distancing [14] , contact tracing [18] , quarantine [10] , [14] , [15] , school closures [15] , personal hygiene [16] and isolation of high-risk individuals [15] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ranking non-pharmaceutical interventions against Covid-19 global pandemic using global sensitivity analysis—Effect on number of deaths

Arachchilage

Hussaini

2021

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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In this study, we use Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to rank four non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in a deterministic compartmental model that might control Covid-19 related deaths in the United States. The NPIs are social distancing, isolation of infected individuals, identifying asymptomatically infected individuals through testing, and the use of face masks. The model uses a fear-based behavioral model that leads unmasked susceptible individuals to wear masks. The model parameters are estimated from the reported deaths for the United States of America from March 1, 2020 to November 26, 2020. Two GSA tools, the Sobol’ sesntivity indices and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient are used to obtain the rankings of the input parameters at different stages of the disease propagation. We found that social distancing and outward mask efficiency alone decreases the output uncertainty by 25-45%. Sobol’ second order indices show that the combined effect of social distancing with increased mask usage and identifying and isolating asymptomatically infected individuals decreases uncertainty an additional 10%.

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The Impact of Infective Immigrants and Self Isolation on the Dynamics and Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Cited by 7 publications

References 7 publications

Bifurkasi Pada Model Penyebaran Penyakit MERS-CoV di Dua Wilayah dengan Populasi Konstan

Bifurkasi Pada Model Penyebaran Penyakit MERS-CoV di Dua Wilayah dengan Populasi Konstan

Mathematical modeling and analysis for the co-infection of COVID-19 and tuberculosis

Ranking non-pharmaceutical interventions against Covid-19 global pandemic using global sensitivity analysis—Effect on number of deaths

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