The Impact of Household Dynamics on Land Use Change in China: Past Experiences and Future Implications

Abstract

Population is the main driver of land systems and environmental change. However, the population is usually treated as a variable that only considers the population number, and the multidimensional population structure is largely ignored. There has been a systematic transition of population structure in the past several decades, such as the changing household structure, the increasing aging population and divorce rate, and human migration. All these have direct or indirect impacts on land use and environmental issues. Here, we will take China as an example to examine the relationship between household dynamics and land use change in China by exam-ining changes in household structure and land use change in China between 1980 and 2020. The results show:1) the number of households increased by 130.95% from 1980 to 2020, while the population only increased by 42.83%. The size of households decreased from 4.41 to 2.92 in China from 1982 to 2020. The household dynamics vary from province to province, which is affected by urbanization rate and economic development. 2) Birth rates, divorce rates, population aging, and migration all affect household structure, which directly or indirectly affects changes in land use systems. 3) The changes in China's land use are interlinked and interact with changes in household structure, evident in the increase in residential land use and the abandonment of arable land. The rising household number increased the area of urban and rural settlement, leading to the fragmentation of cultivated land and the reduction of ecological land. To regulate land use change for sustainable development, future land use planning should take into effect of household dynamics, and reduce the negative effects of household dynamics on land systems and environmental change.