The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat

Jiao, Jing; Gilchrist, Michael A.; Fefferman, Nina H.

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01174

Cited by 6 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…While we do not expect this is a realistic migration structure, we did this to highlight the potential for these evolutionary dynamics. Other ways of migration 10,17,[62][63][64] (e.g., full random or differential movement due to patch heterogeneity) combined with certain metapopulation structures may change the cycling patterns in this study. In this study, we also generally chose parameters to only generate one cycle of disease outbreak in the absence of migration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Epidemiological models of populations facing novel, highly contagious, deadly infections generally predict poor chances for positive population growth 20,[49][50][51][52] . Evolutionary rescue models for such populations have offered better hopes of persistence from the intense selective pressure of a single, sudden outbreak of a novel pathogen, so long as genes permitting robustness in the face of infection are sufficiently represented in the affected population 1,10,53,54 . Here, we considered the murky middle ground in which novel pathogens provide an inconstant selective pressure as ecological, epidemiological, and host evolutionary dynamics all interact with each other over time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of course, in either of these cases, the pressures may be insufficient to eradicate the disease, but may lead instead to steady endemicity. In the case of evolutionary rescue, protective genotypes may also incur other fitness trade-offs leading to the maintenance of the wildtype genes in the population, allowing ongoing circulation of infection, but at insufficiently large scales to wipe out the remaining wildtype population 10 . In the case of herd immunity, birth rates, immigration, and gradual loss of immune memory may replenish the susceptible host population quickly enough to allow the reproductive number for the disease to hover near one, neither allowing www.nature.com/scientificreports/ for large outbreaks nor eradicating infection completely 58,59 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to the accrual of mutations, a host population is likely to have a diversity of existing genotypes, some of which that are more resistant/ tolerant to disease than other types (e.g., some bat species are more tolerant to White Nose Syndrome than others 1 ). Hence, in the sudden presence of the novel selective pressure of a disease, the host population has been observed to evolve while the pathogen remains relatively genetically stable (e.g., White Nose Syndrome and ranavirus 1 , 47 are two of the best-known examples) over a conservation-relevant timeframe 10 . In fact, it may be no coincidence that these two well-known examples are of rapidly expanding invasive infections—entering into a novel host population, with an abundance of readily accessible susceptible individuals to infect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The field of conservation biology explicitly considers the likely impact that different threats or supportive management actions are likely to have on the persistence of populations. The evaluation of these factors can take an ecological perspective, considering demographic effects (e.g., population viability analysis 1,2 ), or behavioral factors (e.g., Allee effects 3,4 ), or can take an evolutionary perspective, considering effective population size [5][6][7] , genetic rescue 8,9 , or even evolutionary rescue 1,10 . One critical advance in our understanding of threatened populations came from considering species that live in potentially connected patches of habitat through dispersal.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation

Jiao

Fefferman

2021

Sci Rep

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When a novel disease strikes a naïve host population, there is evidence that the most immediate response can involve host evolution while the pathogen remains relatively unchanged. When hosts also live in metapopulations, there may be critical differences in the dynamics that emerge from the synergy among evolutionary, ecological, and epidemiological factors. Here we used a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery model to explore how spatial and temporal ecological factors may drive the epidemiological and rapid-evolutionary dynamics of host metapopulations. For simplicity, we assumed two host genotypes: wild type, which has a positive intrinsic growth rate in the absence of disease, and robust type, which is less likely to catch the infection given exposure but has a lower intrinsic growth rate in the absence of infection. We found that the robust-type host would be strongly selected for in the presence of disease when transmission differences between the two types is large. The growth rate of the wild type had dual but opposite effects on host composition: a smaller increase in wild-type growth increased wild-type competition and lead to periodical disease outbreaks over the first generations after pathogen introduction, while larger growth increased disease by providing more susceptibles, which increased robust host density but decreased periodical outbreaks. Increased migration had a similar impact as the increased differential susceptibility, both of which led to an increase in robust hosts and a decrease in periodical outbreaks. Our study provided a comprehensive understanding of the combined effects among migration, disease epidemiology, and host demography on host evolution with an unchanging pathogen. The findings have important implications for wildlife conservation and zoonotic disease control.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation

Jiao

Fefferman

2021

Sci Rep

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The dynamics of disease mediated invasions by hosts with immune reproductive tradeoff

Young

Fefferman

2022

Sci Rep

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The modern world involves both increasingly frequent introduction of novel invasive animals into new habitat ranges and novel epidemic-causing pathogens into new host populations. Both of these phenomena have been well studied. Less well explored, however, is how the success of species invasions may themselves be affected by the pathogens they bring with them. In this paper, we construct a simple, modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for a vector-borne pathogen affecting two annually reproducing hosts. We consider an invasion scenario in which a susceptible native host species is invaded by a disease-resistant species carrying a vector-borne infection. We assume the presence of abundant, but previously disease-free, competent vectors. We find that the success of invasion is critically sensitive to the infectivity of the pathogen. The more the pathogen is able to spread, the more fit the invasive host is in competition with the more vulnerable native species; the pathogen acts as a ‘wingman pathogen,’ enhancing the probability of invader establishment. While not surprising, we provide a quantitative predictive framework for the long-term outcomes from these important coupled dynamics in a world in which compound invasions of hosts and pathogens are increasingly likely.

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Adaptive colonization across a parasitism–mutualism gradient

Mestre,

Butlin,

Hortal

et al. 2023

Evolution Letters

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Adaptive colonization is a process wherein a colonizing population exhibits an adaptive change in response to a novel environment, which may be critical to its establishment. To date, theoretical models of adaptive colonization have been based on single-species introductions. However, given their pervasiveness, symbionts will frequently be co-introduced with their hosts to novel areas. We present an individual-based model to investigate adaptive colonization by hosts and their symbionts across a parasite–mutualist continuum. The host must adapt in order to establish itself in the novel habitat, and the symbiont must adapt to track evolutionary change in the host. First, we classify the qualitative shifts in the outcome that can potentially be driven by non-neutral effects of the symbiont–host interaction into three main types: parasite-driven co-extinction, parasite release, and mutualistic facilitation. Second, we provide a detailed description of a specific example for each type of shift. Third, we disentangle how the interplay between symbiont transmissibility, host migration, and selection strength determines: (a) which type of shift is more likely to occur and (b) the size of the interaction effects necessary to produce it. Overall, we demonstrate the crucial role of host and symbiont dispersal scales in shaping the impacts of parasitism and mutualism on adaptive colonization.

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The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat

Cited by 6 publications

References 63 publications

The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation

The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation

The dynamics of disease mediated invasions by hosts with immune reproductive tradeoff

Adaptive colonization across a parasitism–mutualism gradient

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