The Impact of German Macroeconomic News on Emerging European Forex Markets

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of German macroeconomic news announcements and ECB meeting days on the conditional volatility of the Czech, Polish, and Hungarian Foreign Exchange markets as proxied by CZK/EUR, PLN/EUR, and HUF/EUR exchange rate returns over six years (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015). A currency intervention period (11/2013-2015) in the Czech Republic is examined separately. EGARCH-type models with normal and Student's t-distributions are employed. The comprehensive analysis shows the following results. (i) The IFO index, Factory Orders increase and the PMI index from the Service Sector, the labour market data decrease conditional volatility of PLN/EUR. (ii) The IFO index and Industrial Production increase conditional volatility of HUF/EUR on the day of the announcement. (iii) Data from the labour market has a calming effect on CZK/ EUR after the central bank launched currency interventions. (iv) IFO index increases and the PMI index from the Manufacturing Sector decreases conditional volatility of CZK/EUR before currency interventions were introduced (2010-11/2013). Keywords: exchange rate volatility, heteroscedasticity, EGARCH, macroeconomic news announcements JEL Classification: C52, F31, F36, G15, P59 1 Data come from OECD database (https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-goods-and-services.htm).

Are industry‐level indicators more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index

“…Meanwhile, manufacturing is the core of industrial sector and the key to industrial transformation and upgrading, so PMI covers the most crucial information of industrial sector. In recent years, considering the importance of industrial sector and the faster announcement speed, PMI is often regarded as crucial predictors for consumer price index, exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables (Moravcová, 2018;Wei, Zhang, & Wang, 2017). Besides, the relations between PMI and stock markets also attract the focus of researchers (Baum, Kurov, & Wolfe, 2015;Ishfaq, Qiong, & Shah, 2017;Liu & Wang, 2017;McMillan, 2020;Wang & Yang, 2018).…”