The impact of extensive planting of <i>Miscanthus</i> as an energy crop on future CO<sub>2</sub> atmospheric concentrations

Hughes, John; Lloyd, Amanda; Huntingford, Chris; Finch, J.W.; Harding, R. J.

doi:10.1111/j.1757-1707.2010.01042.x

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 57 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Although the Hughes et al . () study reports parameterization of the JULES simulation and the values used, there is no discussion of its validation against field data. Therefore, the reliability of its predictions cannot be assessed or the uncertainty quantified.…”

Section: Models Parameterized For Miscanthusmentioning

confidence: 97%

Modelling the carbon cycle ofMiscanthusplantations: existing models and the potential for their improvement

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The lignocellulosic perennial grass Miscanthus has received considerable attention as a potential bioenergy crop over the last 25 years, but few commercial plantations exist globally. This is partly due to the uncertainty associated with claims that land-use change (LUC) to Miscanthus will result in both commercially viable yields and net increases in carbon (C) storage. To simulate what the effects may be after LUC to Miscanthus, six process-based models have been parameterized for Miscanthus and here we review how these models operate. This review provides an overview of the key Miscanthus soil organic matter models and then highlights what measurers can do to accelerate model development. Each model (WIMOVAC, BioCro, Agro-IBIS, DAYCENT, DNDC and ECOSSE) is capable of simulating biomass production and soil C dynamics based on specific site characteristics. Understanding the design of these models is important in model selection as well as being important for field researchers to collect the most relevant data to improve model performance. The rapid increase in models parameterized for Miscanthus is promising, but refinements and improvements are still required to ensure that model predictions are reliable and can be applied to spatial scales relevant for policy. Specific improvements, needed to ensure the models are applicable for a range of environmental conditions, come under two categories: (i) increased data generation and (ii) development of frameworks and databases to allow simulations of ranging scales. Research into nonfood bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus is relatively recent and this review highlights that there are still a number of knowledge gaps regarding Miscanthus specifically. For example, the low input requirements of Miscanthus make it particularly attractive as a bioenergy crop, but it is essential that we increase our understanding of the crop's nutrient remobilization and ability to host N-fixing organisms to derive the most accurate simulations.

show abstract

Section: Models Parameterized For Miscanthusmentioning

confidence: 97%

Modelling the carbon cycle ofMiscanthusplantations: existing models and the potential for their improvement

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This is often for similar forcing scenarios to those that GCMs have been operated for, but with the full climate models not yet running with the new land surface descriptions modelled in IMO-GEN. Particular examples include quantification of wetland methane feedbacks , the impacts of changes in diffuse radiation to the land carbon sink (Mercado et al, 2009), the effects of tropospheric ozone on plant productivity (Sitch et al, 2007), the significance of energy crop planting on future atmospheric CO 2 concentration (Hughes et al, 2010), and how alternative mixtures of changes in atmospheric composition, even corresponding to identical radiative forcing changes, can have very contrasting impacts on land surface carbon stocks , and permafrost climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in a warming world .…”

Section: Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energybalance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25±5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44±4.37 and 14.98±4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed.

show abstract

“…); the opportunities to be created through plant breeding and agronomy to increase yields and reduce land take (Karp and Shield ); fossil carbon substitution and reduction in atmospheric CO 2 (Hughes et al. ); and the provision of wider ecosystem services (Hedde et al. ; Bourke et al.…”

Section: Use Of Dedicated Energy Grassesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversification and use of bioenergy to maintain future grasslands

Donnison

Fraser

2016

Food and Energy Security

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Grassland agriculture is experiencing a number of threats including declining profitability and loss of area to other land uses including expansion of the built environment as well as from cropland and forestry. The use of grassland as a natural resource either in terms of existing vegetation and land cover or planting of new species for bioenergy and other nonfood applications presents an opportunity, and potential solution, to maintain the broader ecosystem services that perennial grasslands provide as well as to improve the options for grassland farmers and their communities. This paper brings together different grass or grassland‐based studies and considers them as part of a continuum of strategies that, when also combined with improvements in grassland production systems, will improve the overall efficiency of grasslands as an important natural resource and enable a greater area to be managed, replanted or conserved. These diversification options relate to those most likely to be available to farmers and land owners in the marginally economic or uneconomic grasslands of middle to northern Europe and specifically in the UK. Grasslands represent the predominant global land use and so these strategies are likely to be relevant to other areas although the grass species used may vary. The options covered include the use of biomass derived from the management of grasses in the urban and semi urban environment, semi‐natural grassland systems as part of ecosystem management, pasture in addition to livestock production, and the planting and cropping of dedicated energy grasses. The adoption of such approaches would not only increase income from economically marginal grasslands, but would also mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from livestock production and help fund conservation of these valuable grassland ecosystems and landscapes, which is increasingly becoming a challenge.

show abstract

The impact of extensive planting of Miscanthus as an energy crop on future CO₂ atmospheric concentrations

Cited by 26 publications

References 57 publications

Modelling the carbon cycle ofMiscanthusplantations: existing models and the potential for their improvement

Modelling the carbon cycle ofMiscanthusplantations: existing models and the potential for their improvement

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

Diversification and use of bioenergy to maintain future grasslands

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

The impact of extensive planting of Miscanthus as an energy crop on future CO2 atmospheric concentrations

Cited by 26 publications

References 57 publications

Modelling the carbon cycle ofMiscanthusplantations: existing models and the potential for their improvement

Modelling the carbon cycle ofMiscanthusplantations: existing models and the potential for their improvement

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

Diversification and use of bioenergy to maintain future grasslands

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

The impact of extensive planting of Miscanthus as an energy crop on future CO₂ atmospheric concentrations