The Impact of Erdoğan's Victory on Türkiye-India Bilateral Relations: An Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse the possible consequences of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's 2023 electoral success in Turkey on the bilateral relations between Türkiye and India. Since 2003, Erdoğan has been an influential figure in Turkish politics, known for his assertive leadership style and nationalist policies. The outcomes of his recent electoral victory have sparked noteworthy curiosity regarding its implications on Turkey's foreign policy, particularly in the context of Türkiye-India bilateral relationship. The research methodology employed in this study is qualitative in nature, and it involves an extensive examination of scholarly articles, news, reports, and official statements from both nations. This paper analyses the fundamental elements of the bilateral relations between Türkiye and India, encompassing political, economic, and cultural aspects. Additionally, it evaluates the potential impact of Erdoğan's victory on each of these domains. The firstly, Erdoğan's victory can further strengthen his power in Turkey. So, it is possible that Erdoğan's views on Kashmir, Indian Muslims and Palestine may effect Turkey's foreign policy towards India. Secondly, trade and investment between Turkey and India has grown significantly for the last few years. However, Erdoğan's victory could lead to economic uncertainty in Turkey, which could affect bilateral trade and investment, economic experts said. Lastly, cultural and people-to-people contacts have strengthened Türkiye-India relations. However, Erdoğan's domestic policies promoting Turkish nationalism and conservative beliefs may alter Turkey's social and cultural dynamics. While Erdoğan's victory could transform Turkey-India relations, domestic and international variables will determine their fate. The study recommends that Indian policymakers closely monitor Turkey's foreign policy under Erdoğan and engage in active diplomacy to maintain constructive dialogue to ensure that potential differences do not undermine historical ties and mutual interests.