The Impact of Emergency Department Census on the Decision to Admit

Abstract

Objective: We evaluated the effect of emergency department (ED) census on disposition decisions made by ED physicians.Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis using 18 months of all adult patient encounters seen in the main ED at an academic tertiary care center. Patient census information was calculated at the time of physician assignment for each individual patient and included the number of patients in the waiting room (waiting room census) and number of patients being managed by the patient's attending (physician load census). A multiple logistic regression model was created to assess the association between these census variables and the disposition decision, controlling for potential confounders including Emergency Severity Index acuity, patient demographics, arrival hour, arrival mode, and chief complaint.Results: A total of 49,487 patient visits were included in this analysis, of whom 37% were admitted to the hospital. Both census measures were significantly associated with increased chance of admission; the odds ratio (OR) per patient increase for waiting room census was 1.011 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.001 to 1.020), and the OR for physician load census was 1.010 (95% CI = 1.002 to 1.019). To put this in practical terms, this translated to a modeled rise from 35.3% to 40.1% when shifting from an empty waiting room and zero patient load to a 12-patient wait and 16-patient load for a given physician. Conclusion:Waiting room census and physician load census at time of physician assignment were positively associated with the likelihood that a patient would be admitted, controlling for potential confounders. Our data suggest that disposition decisions in the ED are influenced not only by objective measures of a patient's disease state, but also by workflow-related concerns. E mergency care is receiving increasing scrutiny as a potential area for cost reductions.1-3 Management of emergency department (ED) costs begins with examining how ED operational characteristics contribute to both patient-level and system-level outcomes. One such characteristic under scrutiny is ED crowding, a phenomenon that can be partially attributed to rising practice intensity 4,5 and inpatient boarding. 6-8 As ED utilization rises, research on the effects of crowding has primarily focused on its influence on patient outcomes, including treatment delays 9-11 and patient mortality.12-15 Less well characterized are organizational responses to increasing operational pressure, such as changes to rates of admission.Highly relevant to the discussion of the cost of emergency care is the growing role of the ED as a "gatekeeper" for inpatient services. 1,16,17 In a 2013 RAND report, hospital admissions rose 4% from 34.7 The authors have no relevant financial information or potential conflicts to disclose. Author contributions: JKG, RJB, and BWP conceived the study; JKG conducted the primary data analysis, with advice and input from RJB and BWP; EO helped with data analysis and offered further methodologic input; JKG pri...

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