The impact of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on the burned area in Indonesia

Nurdiati, Sri; Bukhari, Fahren; Julianto, Mochamad Tito; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Aprilia, Mega; Fajar, Ibnu; Septiawan, Pandu; Najib, Mohamad Khoirun

doi:10.1007/s44195-022-00016-0

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…It is important to note that we did not analyze other important drivers such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in SEA, which is a limitation. Specific to ENSO in the region and Indonesia, it was shown to be a drought-inducing agent that, combined with human drivers, affects fires spatially and temporally 62 – 64 . Analysis of ENSO in relation to fires requires separation of land and sea-side domains separately for ENSO impacts, including lagged-correlations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial variations in vegetation fires and emissions in South and Southeast Asia during COVID-19 and pre-pandemic

Vadrevu

Eaturu

Casadaban

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Vegetation fires are common in South/Southeast Asian (SA/SEA) countries. However, very few studies focused on vegetation fires and the changes during the COVID as compared to pre-pandemic. This study fills an information gap and reports total fire incidences, total burnt area, type of vegetation burnt, and total particulate matter emission variations in SA/SEA during COVID-2020 and pre-pandemic (2012–2019). Results from the short-term 2020-COVID versus 2019-non-COVID year showed a decline in fire counts varying from − 2.88 to 79.43% in S/SEA. The exceptions in South Asia include Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, with a 152% and 4.9% increase, and Cambodia and Myanmar in Southeast Asia, with an 11.1% and 8.5% increase in fire counts in the 2020-COVID year. The burnt area decline for 2020 compared to 2019 varied from − 0.8% to 92% for South/Southeast Asian countries, with most burning in agricultural landscapes than forests. Several patches in S/SEA showed a decrease in fires for the 2020 pandemic year compared to long term 2012–2020 pre-pandemic record, with Z scores greater or less than two denoting statistical significance. However, on a country scale, the results were not statistically significant in both S/SEA, with Z scores ranging from − 0.24 to − 1, although most countries experienced a decrease in fire counts. The associated mean TPM emissions declined from ~ 2.31 Tg (0.73stdev) during 2012–2019 to 2.0 (0.65stdev)Tg in 2020 in South Asia and 6.83 (0.70stdev)Tg during 2012–2019 to 5.71 (0.69 stdev)Tg in 2020 for South East Asian countries. The study highlights variations in fires and emissions useful for fire management and mitigation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial variations in vegetation fires and emissions in South and Southeast Asia during COVID-19 and pre-pandemic

Vadrevu

Eaturu

Casadaban

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…A positive IOD phase features anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Indian Ocean and cold SST in the east, and the zonal warm-cold pattern is reversed during its negative phase. IOD events alter ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns 3 – 5 and the associated precipitation anomalies cause substantial impact on Indian Ocean-rim countries, such as droughts and floods in Australia 6 , 7 , Southeast Asia 8 – 10 , the Indian continent 11 , 12 , and East Africa 13 , wildfires in southeast Australia 14 and Indonesia 9 , coral reef dieback in western Sumatra 15 , and malaria outbreaks in East Africa 16 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming

Kim,

Park,

et al. 2024

Nat Commun

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The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major climate variability mode that substantially influences weather extremes and climate patterns worldwide. However, the response of IOD variability to anthropogenic global warming remains highly uncertain. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report concluded that human influences on IOD variability are not robustly detected in observations and twenty-first century climate-model projections. Here, using millennial-length climate simulations, we disentangle forced response and internal variability in IOD change and show that greenhouse warming robustly suppresses IOD variability. On a century time scale, internal variability overwhelms the forced change in IOD, leading to a widespread response in IOD variability. This masking effect is mainly caused by a remote influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, on a millennial time scale, nearly all climate models show a long-term weakening trend in IOD variability by greenhouse warming. Our results provide compelling evidence for a human influence on the IOD.

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“…ENSO, IOD, and PDO are the main external climatic factors of tropical regions [15], [21]. Previous studies have investigated the relationship between these climate factors and IMR and discovered that ENSO, IOD and PDO are the most significant drivers of IMR variability [17], [22]- [24]. Additionally, they illustrated the impact of circulation and Indo-Pacific SST on IMR variability in order to elucidate the mechanism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On The Interannual Variability of Indonesian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR): A Literature Review of The Role of its External Forcing

Mulsandi,

Koesmaryono,

Hidayat

et al. 2024

j. meteorologi dan geofisika

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The IMR variability is notorious for its hydrometeorological disasters. This paper examines recent studies on IMR and the main factors controlling its variability. The focus of this study is to investigate the impact of the atmosphere-ocean interaction that acts as the external forcing of IMR in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Specifically, the study will examine the influence of two climate phenomena, namely the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and their interdecadal changes associated Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), on the IMR. The review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. Furthermore, data sets (such as rainfall, wind field, and SST) spanning 1990-2020 were used to verify the key findings. In general, this study concludes that the majority of the authors coincided with the following conclusion: ENSO and IOD events impact IMR by changing its amplitude, duration, intensity, and frequency of mean and extreme rainfall. Additionally, it has been shown that their impacts on IMR are most substantial during the dry seasons, specifically in June, July, and August (JJA), and not as strong as during the wet seasons, specifically in December, January, and February (DJF). Spatially, the effects of ENSO and IOD on IMR variability are clearly found more eastward and westward of the region, respectively. The expansions towards the east and west directions were facilitated by the displacement of the ascending and descending of Walker circulation patterns in the Indonesian region, respectively. Given the interannual fluctuations in IMR, caused mainly by ocean-atmosphere interactions, the knowledge gap of atmospheric factors like the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) must be investigated in the future, as suggested by previous research and our preliminary study.

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The impact of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on the burned area in Indonesia

Cited by 18 publications

References 47 publications

Spatial variations in vegetation fires and emissions in South and Southeast Asia during COVID-19 and pre-pandemic

Spatial variations in vegetation fires and emissions in South and Southeast Asia during COVID-19 and pre-pandemic

Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming

On The Interannual Variability of Indonesian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR): A Literature Review of The Role of its External Forcing

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